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Political Budget Cycles Or Voters As Fiscal Conservatives? Evidence From Colombia

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  • Marcela Eslava

Abstract

Theoretical models of the political budget cycle suggest that electoral manipulation of government expenditures can take the form of changes in the composition of spending, without impacting the overall budget or the deficit, and that the form and extent of this manipulation depend on the fiscal preferences of voters. In this paper, I use data on government expenditures and election outcomes in Colombia to provide an integrated analysis of voting behavior and the preelectoral dynamics of government spending. I emphasize potential changes in the composition, rather than the size, of the budget. I find that components of the budget that can be identified with targeted spending grow, and that non-targeted spending contracts, in the year preceding an election. Consistently, I find that voters reward the preelection increases in targeted spending, but punish incumbents who run high deficits before the election.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcela Eslava, 2005. "Political Budget Cycles Or Voters As Fiscal Conservatives? Evidence From Colombia," Documentos CEDE 3343, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:003343
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sam Peltzman, 1992. "Voters as Fiscal Conservatives," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 327-361.
    2. Ludger Schuknecht, 1994. "Political Business Cycles and Expenditure Policies in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 1994/121, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Ronald Kneebone & Kenneth McKenzie, 2001. "Electoral and Partisan Cycles in Fiscal Policy: An Examination of Canadian Provinces," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 8(5), pages 753-774, November.
    4. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    5. Drazen, Allan & Brender, Adi, 2003. "Where Does the Political Budget Cycle Really Come From?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4049, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ana Barreira & Rui Nuno Baleiras, 2000. "Cycles On Public Expenditure Composition Within the European Union," Regional and Urban Modeling 283600004, EcoMod.
    2. Tribin, Ana, 2020. "Chasing votes with the public budget," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Álvaro Díaz, Henry Laverde, John Jairo Gómez, 2011. "Política tributaria y sus efectos sobre la distribución del ingreso en Colombia durante el siglo XX," Revista CIFE, Universidad Santo Tomás, December.
    4. Vergne, Clémence, 2009. "Democracy, elections and allocation of public expenditures in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 63-77, March.
    5. Traettino, Salvador, 2023. "Migración forzada y finanzas públicas locales: evidencia de los municipios en Colombia," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12926, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Jean Louis Combes & Christian Ebeke & Mathilde Maurel, 2015. "The effect of remittances prior to an election," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(38), pages 4074-4089, August.
    7. Antoine CAZALS & Pierre MANDON, 2016. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation from Leaders or Manipulation from Researchers? Evidence from a Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers 201609, CERDI.
    8. Nuno Ribeiro & Susana Jorge & Mercedes Cervera, 2013. "Estudo do Endividamento da Administração Local Portuguesa: Evidência Empírica USando Modelos de Análise de Dados em Painel," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 38, pages 46-67, December.
    9. Rojas Rivera, Angela Milena & Molina Guerra, Carlos A., 2015. "A Comparative Analysis of Political Competition and Local Provision of Public Goods: Brazil, Colombia and Mexico(1991-2010)," MPRA Paper 67383, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Oct 2015.
    10. Jakob Haan & Jeroen Klomp, 2013. "Conditional political budget cycles: a review of recent evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 387-410, December.
    11. Cousins, Mel, 2007. "Political budget cycles and social security budget increases in the Republic of Ireland, 1923-2005," MPRA Paper 5359, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Marko Klašnja, 2008. "Electoral Rules, Forms of Government, and Political Budget Cycles in Transition Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 55(2), pages 185-218, June.
    13. Balaguer-Coll, Maria Teresa & Brun-Martos, María Isabel & Forte, Anabel & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2015. "Local governments' re-election and its determinants: New evidence based on a Bayesian approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 94-108.
    14. Contreras, Lina María, 2024. "Ciclos políticos del presupuesto bajo reglas fiscales subnacionales," Documentos CEDE 21137, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    15. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00826999 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Clark Granger-Castaño & Yurany Hernández-Turca & Carlos Murcia-Bustos & Lisseth Yaya-Garzón, 2018. "Ciclo político en las finanzas de los gobiernos regionales de Colombia 1998-2014," Borradores de Economia 1044, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    17. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2015. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation of Leaders or Bias from Research? A Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers halshs-01238883, HAL.
    18. Maria Teresa Balaguer-Coll & María Isabel Brun-Martos & Anabel Forte & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2014. "Determinants of local governments'­ reelection: New evidence based on a Bayesian approach," Working Papers 2014/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    19. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2016. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation from Leaders or Manipulation from Researchers? Evidence from a Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers halshs-01320586, HAL.
    20. Dario José Salcedo Monroy, 2015. "Local Media: Expansion of Radio and Political Accountability. Evidence from Colombia," Documentos CEDE 12566, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    21. Balaguer-Coll, María Teresa & Brun-Martos, María Isabel, 2013. "El efecto del gasto público sobre las posibilidades de reelección de los gobiernos locales," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 74-80.
    22. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00826999 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Salvador Traettino, 2022. "Migración forzada y finanzas públicas locales: Evidencia de los municipios en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 20335, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    24. Allan Drazen & Marcela Eslava, 2005. "Electoral Manipulation via Expenditure Composition: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 11085, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political Budget Cycle;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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