IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-01225243.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

he effect of remittances prior to an election

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Hubert Ebeke

    (IMF - International Monetary Fund - International Monetary Fund)

  • Jean-Louis Combes

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The objective of the article is to assess whether remittances have an influence on political manipulation, which may occur prior to an election, through an increase in the government consumption-to-GDP ratio. We combine data from the National Elections across Democracy and Autocracy data set compiled and discussed in Hyde and Marinov (2012) and the World Development Indicators data set. We focus on 70 developing countries over the period 1990–2010. It appears that the political budget cycle is reduced up to the point where it is fully cancelled out at a remittance threshold of 10.7% of GDP. Those findings are robust to different robustness checks.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Hubert Ebeke & Jean-Louis Combes, 2015. "he effect of remittances prior to an election," Post-Print hal-01225243, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01225243
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elisabetta LODIGIANI & Sara SALOMONE, 2012. "Migration-induced Transfers of Norms. The case of Female Political Empowerment," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2012001, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    2. Brender, Adi & Drazen, Allan, 2005. "Political budget cycles in new versus established democracies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1271-1295, October.
    3. Caner, Mehmet & Hansen, Bruce E., 2004. "Instrumental Variable Estimation Of A Threshold Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(5), pages 813-843, October.
    4. Docquier, Frédéric & Lodigiani, Elisabetta & Rapoport, Hillel & Schiff, Maurice, 2016. "Emigration and democracy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 209-223.
    5. Connel Fullenkamp & Mr. Thomas F. Cosimano & Michael T. Gapen & Mr. Ralph Chami & Mr. Peter J Montiel & Mr. Adolfo Barajas, 2008. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Remittances," IMF Occasional Papers 2008/001, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ludger Schuknecht, 1996. "Political Business Cycles and Fiscal Policies in Developing Countries," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(2), pages 155-170, May.
    7. Bertoli, Simone & Marchetta, Francesca, 2015. "Bringing It All Back Home – Return Migration and Fertility Choices," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 27-40.
    8. Helene Ehrhart, 2012. "Assessing the relationship between democracy and domestic taxes in developing countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 551-566.
    9. Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp & Samir Jahjah, 2005. "Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 55-81, April.
    10. Combes, Jean-Louis & Ebeke, Christian, 2011. "Remittances and Household Consumption Instability in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 1076-1089, July.
    11. Elisabetta LODIGIANI & Sara SALOMONE, 2020. "Migration-induced transfers of norms: the case of female political empowerment," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(4), pages 435-477, December.
    12. Shi, Min & Svensson, Jakob, 2006. "Political budget cycles: Do they differ across countries and why?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(8-9), pages 1367-1389, September.
    13. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    14. Clémence Vergne, 2009. "Democracy, elections and allocation of public expenditures in developing countries," Post-Print hal-00368509, HAL.
    15. Masten, Arjana Brezigar & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Masten, Igor, 2008. "Non-linear growth effects of financial development: Does financial integration matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 295-313, March.
    16. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16.
    17. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Hassan, Gazi Mainul, 2011. "A panel data analysis of the growth effects of remittances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 701-709, January.
    18. Antonio Spilimbergo, 2009. "Democracy and Foreign Education," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 528-543, March.
    19. Schuknecht, Ludger, 2000. "Fiscal Policy Cycles and Public Expenditure in Developing Countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 102(1-2), pages 115-130, January.
    20. Abdih, Yasser & Chami, Ralph & Dagher, Jihad & Montiel, Peter, 2012. "Remittances and Institutions: Are Remittances a Curse?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 657-666.
    21. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    22. Pfutze, Tobias, 2012. "Does migration promote democratization? Evidence from the Mexican transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 159-175.
    23. Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini & Gerald D. Cohen, 1997. "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510944, April.
    24. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "Are Bilateral Remittances Countercyclical?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-16, February.
    25. repec:bla:kyklos:v:49:y:1996:i:2:p:155-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 21-36, March.
    27. Catia Batista & Pedro C. Vicente, 2011. "Do Migrants Improve Governance at Home? Evidence from a Voting Experiment," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 77-104, May.
    28. Khemani, Stuti, 2004. "Political cycles in a developing economy: effect of elections in the Indian States," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 125-154, February.
    29. Vergne, Clémence, 2009. "Democracy, elections and allocation of public expenditures in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 63-77, March.
    30. Frederic DOCQUIER & Elisabetta LODIGIANI & Hillel RAPOPORT & Maurice SCHIFF, 2010. "Emigration and the quality of home country institutions," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2010035, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    31. Pablo A. Acosta & Nicole Rae Baerg & Federico S. Mandelman, 2009. "Financial development, remittances, and real exchange rate appreciation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 94(1), pages 1-12.
    32. Fafchamps, Marcel & Vicente, Pedro C., 2013. "Political violence and social networks: Experimental evidence from a Nigerian election," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 27-48.
    33. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    34. Hyde, Susan D. & Marinov, Nikolay, 2012. "Which Elections Can Be Lost?," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 191-210, April.
    35. Allan Drazen & Marcela Eslava, 2005. "Electoral Manipulation via Expenditure Composition: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 11085, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10842 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Flore Gubert, 2002. "Do Migrants Insure Those who Stay Behind? Evidence from the Kayes Area (Western Mali)," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 267-287.
    38. World Bank, 2011. "Migration and Remittances Factbook 2011 : Second Edition," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2522.
    39. Agarwal, Reena & Horowitz, Andrew W., 2002. "Are International Remittances Altruism or Insurance? Evidence from Guyana Using Multiple-Migrant Households," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2033-2044, November.
    40. Marcela Eslava, 2005. "Political Budget Cycles Or Voters As Fiscal Conservatives? Evidence From Colombia," Documentos CEDE 3343, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    41. Cynthia Bansak & Brian Chezum, 2009. "How Do Remittances Affect Human Capital Formation of School-Age Boys and Girls?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 145-148, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thierry Baudassé & Rémi Bazillier & Ismaël Issifou, 2018. "Migration And Institutions: Exit And Voice (From Abroad)?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 727-766, July.
    2. Issifou, Ismael, 2017. "Can migration reduce civil conflicts as an antidote to rent-seeking?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 333-353.
    3. Antoine CAZALS & Pierre MANDON, 2016. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation from Leaders or Manipulation from Researchers? Evidence from a Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers 201609, CERDI.
    4. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2015. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation of Leaders or Bias from Research? A Meta-Regression Analysis," CERDI Working papers halshs-01238883, HAL.
    5. Mohamed Boly & Pascale Combes Motel & Jean-Louis Combes, 2019. "How much does environment pay for politicians?," Post-Print hal-02314982, HAL.
    6. Konte, Maty & Ndubuisi, Gideon, 2019. "Remittances and Bribery in Africa," MERIT Working Papers 2019-043, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    7. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2015. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation of Leaders or Bias from Research? A Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers halshs-01238883, HAL.
    8. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2016. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation from Leaders or Manipulation from Researchers? Evidence from a Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers halshs-01320586, HAL.
    9. Boly, Mohamed & Combes, Jean-Louis & Combes Motel, Pascale, 2023. "Does environment pay for politicians?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    10. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00826999 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00826999 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:hal:cdiwps:halshs-00826999 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Vergne, Clémence, 2009. "Democracy, elections and allocation of public expenditures in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 63-77, March.
    5. Margarita Katsimi & Vassilis Sarantides, 2012. "Do elections affect the composition of fiscal policy in developed, established democracies?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 325-362, April.
    6. Niklas Potrafke, 2006. "Political Effects on the Allocation of Public Expenditures: Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 653, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Helene Ehrhart, 2013. "Elections and the structure of taxation in developing countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 195-211, July.
    8. Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Miss Dilan Ölcer, 2013. "Fiscal Policy over the Election Cycle in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2013/153, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Kyriacou, Andreas P. & Okabe, Tomohito & 岡部, 智人 & Roca-Sagalés, Oriol, 2020. "Conditional Political Budget Cycles: A Reconsideration of the Role of Economic Development," Discussion Paper Series 709, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    10. Margarita Katsimi & Vassilis Sarantides, 2015. "Public investment and reelection prospects in developed countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(2), pages 471-500, October.
    11. Collazos-Ortiz, María Antonieta & Wong, Pui-Hang, 2024. "The effects of resource rents and elections on human capital investment in Colombia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    12. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.
    13. Pantelis Kammas & Vassilis Sarantides, 2016. "Fiscal redistribution around elections when democracy is not “the only game in town”," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 279-311, September.
    14. García, Israel & Hayo, Bernd, 2021. "Political budget cycles revisited: Testing the signalling process," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    15. Georgios Efthyvoulou, 2012. "Political budget cycles in the European Union and the impact of political pressures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 295-327, December.
    16. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2015. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation of Leaders or Bias from Research? A Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers halshs-01238883, HAL.
    17. Jakob Haan & Jeroen Klomp, 2013. "Conditional political budget cycles: a review of recent evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 387-410, December.
    18. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 235-259, January.
    19. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2016. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation from Leaders or Manipulation from Researchers? Evidence from a Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers halshs-01320586, HAL.
    20. Andreas P. Kyriacou & Tomohito Okabe & Oriol Roca‐Sagalés, 2022. "Conditional political budget cycles: The role of time preference," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 67-91, March.
    21. Rabia Nazir & Muhammad Nasir & Idrees Khawaja, 2022. "Political Budget Cycle: A Sub-National Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(3), pages 343-367, November.
    22. Antoine CAZALS & Pierre MANDON, 2016. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation from Leaders or Manipulation from Researchers? Evidence from a Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers 201609, CERDI.
    23. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Post-Print hal-01291401, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    political business cycles; remittances;

    JEL classification:

    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01225243. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.