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Ciclo político en las finanzas de los gobiernos regionales de Colombia 1998-2014

Author

Listed:
  • Clark Granger-Castaño

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Yurany Hernández-Turca

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Carlos Murcia-Bustos

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Lisseth Yaya-Garzón

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

Abstract

Este artículo busca comprobar la presencia de ciclos políticos sobre las finanzas de los gobiernos regionales de Colombia durante el periodo 1998-2014. A partir de una base de datos que contiene información detallada de la situación fiscal y los resultados electorales de una muestra representativa de municipios y departamentos, se estiman modelos de panel dinámicos mediante el Método Generalizado de Momentos –MGM-. Los resultados de las estimaciones muestran evidencia del ciclo político en las finanzas territoriales, al corroborar la existencia de aumentos de los gastos y el déficit fiscal durante los años electorales. De forma complementaria, se realiza un análisis con la información de finalidad de gasto, donde se revela que en los periodos de elecciones los gobernantes tienden a incrementar los gastos de inversión más visibles, dentro de los cuales se destacan la inversión en carreteras, infraestructura y servicios públicos. **** This article evaluates the presence of political cycles on the finances of Colombian local governments during the period 1998-2014. Based on a database, which contains detailed information about the fiscal situation and the electoral results of a representative sample of municipalities and departments, we estimate dynamic panel models using the Generalized Method of Moments –GMM-. The results of the estimations show evidence of the political cycle in the subnational finances. The estimates corroborate the existence of increases in expenditures and fiscal deficit during electoral years. Complementarily, we carry out an analysis with information about the purpose of the expenditure, which reveals that during the election periods the governments tend to increase the most visible investment expenditures, among which are the investment in roads, infrastructure and public services.

Suggested Citation

  • Clark Granger-Castaño & Yurany Hernández-Turca & Carlos Murcia-Bustos & Lisseth Yaya-Garzón, 2018. "Ciclo político en las finanzas de los gobiernos regionales de Colombia 1998-2014," Borradores de Economia 1044, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1044
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1044
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Jaime Bonet-Morón, 2018. "Municipal Fiscal Health in Colombian Main Cities," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 17016, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ciclo político; finanzas públicas; gobiernos regionales; datos panel; Political cycle; public finance; local governments; panel data analysis.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General

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