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Inflation Persistence in Europe: The Effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic and of the Russia-Ukraine War

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Juan Infante
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana
  • Raquel Ayestaran

Abstract

This note analyses the possible effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and of the Russia-Ukraine war on the degree of inflation persistence in both the euro zone and the European Union as a whole (EU27). For this purpose a fractional integration model is estimated, first using the full sample and then recursively. Although the recursive analysis provides clear evidence of a significant increase in inflation persistence (especially in the case of the EU27, for which in addition to jumps an upward trend is clearly identifiable), the full-sample results imply long-lasting but only temporary effects of the two shocks being examined. These findings suggest that the required policy response to both shocks should also have a temporary nature.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juan Infante & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Raquel Ayestaran, 2022. "Inflation Persistence in Europe: The Effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic and of the Russia-Ukraine War," CESifo Working Paper Series 10071, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10071
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
    2. Osborn, Denise R, et al, 1988. "Seasonality and the Order of Integration for Consumption," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(4), pages 361-377, November.
    3. Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2008. "Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 163-185, January.
    4. Bodnár, Katalin & Schuler, Tobias, 2022. "The surge in euro area food inflation and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
    5. Alberto Cavallo, 2024. "Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(2), pages 902-917, June.
    6. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    7. Armantier, Olivier & Koşar, Gizem & Pomerantz, Rachel & Skandalis, Daphné & Smith, Kyle & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2021. "How economic crises affect inflation beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 443-469.
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    Cited by:

    1. Raquel Ayestarán & Juan Infante & Juan José Tenorio & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2023. "Evidence of Inflation Using Harmonized Consumer Price Indices in Some Euro Countries: France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, along with the Euro Zone," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-12, May.
    2. Nicholas Apergis, 2024. "Euro area inflation in the era of COVID‐19: A permanent or a transitory phenomenon?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 92(3), pages 231-245, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation persistence; fractional integration; recursive estimation; Covid-19 pandemic; Russia-Ukraine war;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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