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COVID-19 and the CPI: Is Inflation Underestimated?

Author

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  • Mr. Marshall B Reinsdorf

Abstract

COVID-19 changed consumers’ spending patterns, making the CPI weights suddenly obsolete. In most regions, adjusting the CPI weights to account for the changes in spending patterns increases the estimate of inflation over the early months of the pandemic. Under-weighting of rising food prices and over-weighting of falling transport prices are the main causes of the underestimation of inflation. Updated CPI weights should be developed as soon as is feasible, but flux in spending patterns during the pandemic complicates the development as quickly as 2021 of weights that represent post-pandemic spending patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Marshall B Reinsdorf, 2020. "COVID-19 and the CPI: Is Inflation Underestimated?," IMF Working Papers 2020/224, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/224
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    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic policy > Money and monetary policy

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2021. "Inflation During the Pandemic: What Happened? What is Next?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2108, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    2. Bai, Yan & Costlow, Leah & Ebel, Alissa & Laves, Sarah & Ueda, Yurika & Volin, Natalie & Zamek, Maya & Herforth, Anna & Masters, William A., 2021. "Review: Retail consumer price data reveal gaps and opportunities to monitor food systems for nutrition," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    3. Donatella Saccone, 2021. "Can the Covid19 pandemic affect the achievement of the ‘Zero Hunger’ goal? Some preliminary reflections," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(7), pages 1025-1038, September.
    4. Alberto Cavallo, 2024. "Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(2), pages 902-917, June.
    5. Edgar Caicedo-García & Jesús Daniel Sarmiento-Sarmiento & Ramón Hernández-Ortega, 2022. "Inflación y Covid-19: un ejercicio para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1198, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Unel, Fatma Bunyan & Yalpir, Sukran, 2023. "Sustainable tax system design for use of mass real estate appraisal in land management," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Kantur, Zeynep & Özcan, Gülserim, 2021. "What pandemic inflation tells: Old habits die hard," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    8. Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Manuel Menkhoff & Sascha Möhrle & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Pauliina Sandqv, 2020. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2020: Das Coronavirus schlägt zurück – erneuter Shutdown bremst Konjunktur ein zweites Mal aus," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(Sonderaus), pages 03-61, December.
    9. Grigoli, Francesco & Pugacheva, Evgenia, 2024. "COVID-19 inflation weights in the UK and Germany," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Lopez, Luis A. & Yoshida, Jiro, 2022. "Estimating housing rent depreciation for inflation adjustments," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    11. Nehal Ahmad Khan & Anwar Shah, 2022. "An Empirical Analysis of the Prices of Selected Food Items Across Three Political administrations in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 91-114, July-Dec.

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