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What pandemic inflation tells: Old habits die hard

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  • Kantur, Zeynep
  • Özcan, Gülserim

Abstract

COVID-19 has led to changes in individuals’ consumption habits, which will cause the calculation of inflation based on the average consumption basket to give distorted information. Using debit and credit card spending data of Turkey, we build CPI weights and compute an alternative pandemic consumption basket price index for Jan 2020–Feb 2021. Our findings show that the pandemic inflation is higher than the official inflation rate during the first lockdown, suggesting a behavioral change in consumption. However, in the reopening period, old habits come back. During the second lockdown, the difference between the pandemic and the official inflation rates is trivial in comparison with the first lockdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Kantur, Zeynep & Özcan, Gülserim, 2021. "What pandemic inflation tells: Old habits die hard," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:204:y:2021:i:c:s0165176521001841
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109907
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kim Huynh & Helen Lao & Patrick Sabourin & Angelika Welte, 2020. "What do high-frequency expenditure network data reveal about spending and inflation during COVID‑19?," Staff Analytical Notes 2020-20, Bank of Canada.
    2. Pascal Seiler, 2020. "Weighting bias and inflation in the time of COVID-19: evidence from Swiss transaction data," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Mr. Marshall B Reinsdorf, 2020. "COVID-19 and the CPI: Is Inflation Underestimated?," IMF Working Papers 2020/224, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Alberto Cavallo, 2024. "Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(2), pages 902-917, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chowdhury, Aftab & Dixon, Huw David, 2023. "Measuring inflation during the Pandemic with the benefit of hindsight," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/17, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    2. Xu, Yingying & Lien, Donald, 2024. "Together in bad times? The effect of COVID-19 on inflation spillovers in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 316-331.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; COVID-19; Consumption behavior; Card transaction data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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