IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdl/uctcwp/qt05x370hr.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Road Expansion, Urban Growth, and Induced Travel: A Path Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Cervero, Robert

Abstract

Claims that roadway investments spur new travel and thus fail to relieve traffic congestion, known as induced demand, have thwarted road development in both the United States and abroad. Most past studies point to a significant induced demand effect. This research challenges past results by employing a path model to causally sort out the links between investments and traffic increases, using data for 24 California free projects across 15 years. Traffic increases are explained in terms of both faster travel speeds and land-use shifts that occur in response to adding freeway lanes. While the path model confirms the presence of induced travel in both the short- and longer-run, estimated elasticities are generally lower than those of earlier studies. This research also reveals significant “induced growth” and “induced investment” effects – real-estate development has gravitated to improved freeway corridors and road investments have been shaped by traffic trends in California. Fighting road projects on the groups of induced-demand should be carefully considered. Energies might be better directed at curbing mispricing in the highway sector and managing land-use changes spawn by road investments.

Suggested Citation

  • Cervero, Robert, 2001. "Road Expansion, Urban Growth, and Induced Travel: A Path Analysis," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt05x370hr, University of California Transportation Center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt05x370hr
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/05x370hr.pdf;origin=repeccitec
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick DeCorla-Souza & Harry Cohen, 1999. "Estimating induced travel for evaluation of metropolitan highway expansion," Transportation, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 249-262, August.
    2. Robert Noland & William Cowart, 2000. "Analysis of Metropolitan Highway Capacity and the growth in vehicle miles of travel," Transportation, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 363-390, December.
    3. Hansen, Mark & Gillen, David & Dobbins, Allison & Huang, Yuanlin & Puvathingal, Mohnish, 1993. "The Air Quality Impacts of Urban Highway Capacity Expansion: Traffic Generation and Land Use Change," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt6zz3k76c, University of California Transportation Center.
    4. Cervero, Robert, 2001. "Induced Demand: An Urban Metropolitan Perspective," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt5pj337gw, University of California Transportation Center.
    5. Boarnet, Marlon G. & Chalermpong, Saksith, 2000. "New Highways, Urban Development, and Induced Travel," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt3t18n41x, University of California Transportation Center.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Angarita-Zapata Juan S. & Parra-Valencia Jorge A. & Andrade-Sosa Hugo H., 2016. "Understanding the Structural Complexity of Induced Travel Demand in Decision-Making: A System Dynamics Approach," Organizacija, Sciendo, vol. 49(3), pages 129-143, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cervero, Robert, 2001. "Induced Demand: An Urban Metropolitan Perspective," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt5pj337gw, University of California Transportation Center.
    2. Weis, Claude & Axhausen, Kay W., 2009. "Induced travel demand: Evidence from a pseudo panel data based structural equations model," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 8-18.
    3. Gilles Duranton & Matthew A. Turner, 2011. "The Fundamental Law of Road Congestion: Evidence from US Cities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2616-2652, October.
    4. Hejun Kang & Darren M Scott & Pavlos S Kanaroglou & Hanna F Maoh, 2009. "An Exploration of Issues Related to the Study of Generated Traffic and other Impacts Arising from Highway Improvements," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 36(1), pages 67-85, February.
    5. Patricia Mokhtarian & Francisco Samaniego & Robert Shumway & Neil Willits, 2002. "Revisiting the notion of induced traffic through a matched-pairs study," Transportation, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 193-220, May.
    6. Deakin, Elizabeth & Dock, Fred & Garry, Gordon & Handy, Susan & McNally, Michael & Sall, Elizabeth & Skabardonis, Alex & Walker, Joan & Rheinhardt, Karl, 2020. "Calculating and Forecasting Induced Vehicle-Miles of Travel Resulting from Highway Projects: Findings and Recommendations from an Expert Panel," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt15d2t2gf, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    7. Rayaprolu, Hema & Levinson, David, 2024. "Co-evolution of public transport access and ridership," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    8. Rahman, Mohammad Lutfur & Baker, Douglas, 2018. "Modelling induced mode switch behaviour in Bangladesh: A multinomial logistic regression approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 81-91.
    9. Qing Su, 2017. "Travel Demand Management Policy Instruments, Urban Spatial Characteristics, and Household Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Travel in the US Urban Areas," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 157-166.
    10. Volker, Jamey M. B. & Handy, Susan L., 2022. "Updating the Induced Travel Calculator," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt1hh9b9mf, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    11. Yao Wu & David Levinson, 2005. "The Rational Locator Reexamined," Working Papers 200503, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    12. David Levinson & Seshasai Kanchi, 2002. "Road Capacity and the Allocation of Time," Working Papers 200203, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    13. Patricia C. Melo & Daniel J. Graham, 2018. "Transport‐induced agglomeration effects: Evidence for US metropolitan areas," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 37-47, March.
    14. Hsu, Wen-Tai & Zhang, Hongliang, 2014. "The fundamental law of highway congestion revisited: Evidence from national expressways in Japan," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 65-76.
    15. Becky P Y Loo, 2003. "Tunnel Traffic and Toll Elasticities in Hong Kong: Some Recent Evidence for International Comparisons," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 35(2), pages 249-276, February.
    16. Philip Heidt & M. Taha Kasim, 2020. "The effects of highways on school segregation," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(5), pages 1261-1280, October.
    17. Piyapong Jiwattanakulpaisarn & Robert Noland & Daniel Graham & John Polak, 2006. "Highway Infrastructure Investment and Regional Employment Growth: Dynamic Panel Regression Analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa06p207, European Regional Science Association.
    18. Dimitropoulos, Alexandros & Oueslati, Walid & Sintek, Christina, 2018. "The rebound effect in road transport: A meta-analysis of empirical studies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 163-179.
    19. Rentziou, Aikaterini & Gkritza, Konstantina & Souleyrette, Reginald R., 2012. "VMT, energy consumption, and GHG emissions forecasting for passenger transportation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 487-500.
    20. Chen, Wei & Klaiber, H. Allen, 2020. "Does road expansion induce traffic? An evaluation of Vehicle-Kilometers Traveled in China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social and Behavioral Sciences;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt05x370hr. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lisa Schiff (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/itucbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.