IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdf/wpaper/2023-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Finance And Growth: The Unpleasant Burden Of Evidence

Author

Listed:

Abstract

A growing body of post-global financial crisis (2007 2008) literature documents several undesirable effects of enlarged financial sectors. One of these effects is the growth cost of excessive finance, which reports that the finance growth relationship is non-monotonic, and that a credit threshold of above 100% of GDP costs economic growth. Since most industrialized countries exceed this threshold by a large margin (reaching as high as 200% in some cases), the policy implications of these findings can hardly be overstated. Moreover, if a tipping point in the finance growth relationship could be established beyond reasonable doubt then this would be a pathbreaking finding. Extensive, rigorous, and widely replicative empirical evidence gathered through a unified approach across wide-ranging analytical trajectories could serve as the burden of evidence and minimize the odds of false positives. We offer such scrutiny regarding three propositions of finance growth nexus: (i) the inverted U-shaped relationship, (ii) the relevance of financial development for growth, and (iii) the vanishing effects. We analyze fourteen measures of financial development across twenty-two panels two global datasets and a further twenty country panels based on distinct geographic, economic, and the relative financial development characteristics. The burden of evidence from more than 7,000 well-structured cross-sectional and panel estimates fails to show any robust support to any of these three propositions. We document several other bizarre findings, viz., that the advanced economies need to scale back their relative levels of financial development to those of Eastern Europe to avoid the growth costs associated with overdeveloped financial systems. Surprisingly, the burden of evidence does not support even the widely reported results that financial development is significant under log-linear specifications. This study is unique in cross checking a set of well-accepted empirical results against the burden of evidence , and it certainly contests the mainstream cross-country literature. However, this does not disprove the potential role of finance for growth. Alternative approaches that analyze finance and growth at more disaggregated levels by linking sectoral and/or firmlevel production initiatives to their sources of finance may be more effective in unraveling the finance-growth nexus.

Suggested Citation

  • Luintel, Kul B & Li, GuangJie & Khan, Mosahid, 2023. "Finance And Growth: The Unpleasant Burden Of Evidence," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/8, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2023/8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://carbsecon.com/wp/E2023_8.pdf
    File Function: Main Text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://carbsecon.com/wp/E2023_8_Online_Appendix.pdf
    File Function: Online Appendix
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://carbsecon.com/wp/E2023_8_Online_Tables.pdf
    File Function: Online Appendix
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romain Rancière & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2008. "Systemic Crises and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(1), pages 359-406.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    3. Loayza, Norman V. & Ranciere, Romain, 2006. "Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 1051-1076, June.
    4. Arthur Lewbel, 2012. "Using Heteroscedasticity to Identify and Estimate Mismeasured and Endogenous Regressor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 67-80.
    5. William R. Cline, 2015. "Too Much Finance, or Statistical Illusion?," Policy Briefs PB15-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    6. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    7. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    8. Thomas Philippon & Ariell Reshef, 2012. "Wages and Human Capital in the U.S. Finance Industry: 1909--2006," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(4), pages 1551-1609.
    9. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    11. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    12. Daron Acemoglu & Suresh Naidu & Pascual Restrepo & James A. Robinson, 2019. "Democracy Does Cause Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(1), pages 47-100.
    13. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
    14. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    16. Jean Arcand & Enrico Berkes & Ugo Panizza, 2015. "Too much finance?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 105-148, June.
    17. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    18. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    19. Demirguc-Kunt, Ash & Levine, Ross, 1996. "Stock Markets, Corporate Finance, and Economic Growth: An Overview," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(2), pages 223-239, May.
    20. Lucas C. Coffman & Muriel Niederle & Alistair J. Wilson, 2017. "A Proposal to Organize and Promote Replications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 41-45, May.
    21. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Rioja, Felix & Valev, Neven, 2004. "Does one size fit all?: a reexamination of the finance and growth relationship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 429-447, August.
    23. Gennaioli, Nicola & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 2012. "Neglected risks, financial innovation, and financial fragility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 452-468.
    24. Maren Duvendack & Richard Palmer-Jones & W. Robert Reed, 2017. "What Is Meant by "Replication" and Why Does It Encounter Resistance in Economics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 46-51, May.
    25. Enrico Berkes & Ugo Panizza & Jean Louis Arcand, 2015. "Too Much Finance or Statistical Illusion: A Comment," IHEID Working Papers 12-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    26. Stephen Cecchetti & Enisse Kharroubi, 2012. "Reassessing the impact of finance on growth," BIS Working Papers 381, Bank for International Settlements.
    27. Jo Thori Lind & Halvor Mehlum, 2010. "With or Without U? The Appropriate Test for a U‐Shaped Relationship," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(1), pages 109-118, February.
    28. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has financial development made the world riskier?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 313-369.
    29. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Sam Langfield & Marco Pagano, 2016. "Bank bias in Europe: effects on systemic risk and growth," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 51-106.
    31. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
    32. Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Seyed Reza Yousefi, 2016. "The Finance and Growth Nexus Re-Examined: Do All Countries Benefit Equally?," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(5), pages 5-38, June.
    33. Thomas Philippon, 2010. "Financiers versus Engineers: Should the Financial Sector Be Taxed or Subsidized?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 158-182, July.
    34. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    35. Gründler, Klaus, 2021. "The Vanishing Effect Of Finance On Economic Development," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 536-578, March.
    36. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    37. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jean Arcand & Enrico Berkes & Ugo Panizza, 2015. "Too much finance?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 105-148, June.
    2. Loayza,Norman V. & Ouazad,Amine & Ranciere,Romain, 2017. "Financial development, growth, and crisis: is there a trade-off ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8237, The World Bank.
    3. Chu, Lan Khanh & Chu, Hung Viet, 2020. "Is too much liquidity harmful to economic growth?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 230-242.
    4. Akhilesh K. Verma & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2021. "Interlinkages between external debt financing, credit cycles and output fluctuations in emerging market economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(4), pages 965-1001, November.
    5. Alessio Ciarlone, 2019. "The relationship between financial development and growth: the case of emerging Europe," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 521, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Fajeau, Maxime, 2021. "Too much finance or too many weak instruments?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 14-36.
    7. Gründler, Klaus, 2015. "The vanishing effect of finance on growth," Discussion Paper Series 133, Julius Maximilian University of Würzburg, Chair of Economic Order and Social Policy.
    8. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    9. Samatas, Andreas & Makrominas, Michalis & Moro, Andrea, 2019. "Financial intermediation, capital composition and income stagnation: The case of Europe," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 273-289.
    10. Beck, T.H.L., 2011. "The Role of Finance in Economic Development : Benefits, Risks, and Politics," Discussion Paper 2011-141, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. Vighneswara Swamy & Dharani M, 2020. "The tipping point of financial development? – evidence from OECD countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 125-165, February.
    12. Paul Wachtel, 2018. "Credit Deepening: Precursor to Growth or Crisis?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(1), pages 34-43, March.
    13. Vighneswara Swamy & Munusamy Dharani, 2020. "Thresholds of financial development in the Euro area," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(6), pages 1730-1774, June.
    14. Swamy, Vighneswara & Dharani, Munusamy, 2019. "The dynamics of finance-growth nexus in advanced economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 122-146.
    15. Ductor, Lorenzo & Grechyna, Daryna, 2015. "Financial development, real sector, and economic growth," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 393-405.
    16. Vighneswara Swamy & Munusamy Dharani, 2021. "Thresholds in finance–growth nexus: Evidence from G‐7 economies," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 1-40, March.
    17. Beck, T.H.L., 2011. "The Role of Finance in Economic Development : Benefits, Risks, and Politics," Other publications TiSEM f9c81fe6-f2cd-4fa7-b598-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Abdul Bahri, Elya Nabila & Mohd Nor, Abu Hassan Shaari & Sarmidi, Tamat & Haji Mohd Nor, Nor Hakimah, 2018. "Nonlinear Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Post Global Financial Crisis Panel Data," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(1), pages 15-30.
    19. Abdilahi Ali & Katsushi S. Imai, 2015. "Editor's choice Crises, Economic Integration and Growth Collapses in African Countries," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 24(4), pages 471-501.
    20. Thomas Grjebine & Fabien Tripier, 2015. "Excess Finance and Growth: Don't Lose Sight of Expansions !," Working Papers 2015-31, CEPII research center.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Finance and growth; non-monotonicity; credit threshold; generalized methods of moments.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2023/8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yongdeng Xu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ecscfuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.