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Credit Deepening: Precursor to growth or crisis?

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  • Paul Wachtel

Abstract

There are two areas of economic research that are closely related but have until recently developed independently. The first is the literature on the finance-growth nexus that has shown how countries with greater financial depth grow more rapidly. The second is the literature on credit and financial crises that has shown that financial crises and recessions are usually preceded by rapid expansion of credit. Thus, credit deepening and credit booms are sometimes beneficial and sometimes not. In the last few years, there have been efforts to reconcile the two literatures. This paper reviews the two literatures and describes recent efforts to reconcile the two relationships. Much more work is required, but it is important for policy makers to be able to distinguish good, growth-enhancing credit booms from bad, crisis-inducing ones.
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Suggested Citation

  • Paul Wachtel, 2017. "Credit Deepening: Precursor to growth or crisis?," Working Papers 17-04, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ste:nystbu:17-04
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    2. Panicos O. Demetriades & Johan M. Rewilak & Peter L. Rousseau, 2024. "Finance, Growth, and Fragility," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 29-49, August.
    3. Sy-Hoa Ho & Jamel Saadaoui, 2022. "Bank credit and economic growth: A dynamic threshold panel model for ASEAN countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 115-128.
    4. Małgorzata Iwanicz-Drozdowska & Paola Bongini & Paweł Smaga & Bartosz Witkowski, 2019. "The role of banks in CESEE countries: exploring non-standard determinants of economic growth," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 349-382, May.
    5. Samargandi, Nahla & Kutan, Ali M. & Sohag, Kazi & Alqahtani, Faisal, 2020. "Equity market and money supply spillovers and economic growth in BRICS economies: A global vector autoregressive approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    6. Eliana Lauretta & Sajid M. Chaudhry & Daniel Santamaria, 2023. "Unveiling the black swan of the finance‐growth Nexus: Assumptions and preliminary evidence of virtuous and unvirtuous cycles," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3749-3773, October.

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