IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cba/wpaper/63.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Problems and Prospects for Dynamic Microsimulation: A review and lessons for APPSIM

Author

Listed:
  • Rebecca Cassells

    (NATSEM, University of Canberra)

  • Ann Harding

    (NATSEM, University of Canberra)

  • Simon Kelly

    (NATSEM, University of Canberra)

Abstract

This paper has been prepared as the first in a series of papers associated with the development of the Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model (APPSIM). The APPSIM dynamic population microsimulation model is being developed as part of an Australian Research Council (ARC) Linkage grant (LP0562493), and will be used by Commonwealth Government policy makers and other analysts to assess the social and fiscal policy implications of Australia's ageing population. This paper reviews progress nationally and internationally on the construction of dynamic population microsimulation models and considers the lessons that might be taken from that earlier experience for the construction of the APPSIM model.

Suggested Citation

  • Rebecca Cassells & Ann Harding & Simon Kelly, 2006. "Problems and Prospects for Dynamic Microsimulation: A review and lessons for APPSIM," NATSEM Working Paper Series 63, University of Canberra, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling.
    • Handle: RePEc:cba:wpaper:63
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.natsem.canberra.edu.au/files/download?id=253
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. François Bourguignon & Amedeo Spadaro, 2006. "Microsimulation as a tool for evaluating redistribution policies," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 4(1), pages 77-106, April.
    2. Herwig Immervoll & Horacio Levy & Christine Lietz & Daniela Mantovani & Cathal O’Donoghue & Holly Sutherland & Gerlinde Verbist, 2006. "Household Incomes and Redistribution in the European Union: Quantifying the Equalizing Properties of Taxes and Benefits," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Dimitri B. Papadimitriou (ed.), The Distributional Effects of Government Spending and Taxation, chapter 5, pages 135-165, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. L. Wade, 1988. "Review," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 99-100, July.
    4. Simon Kelly & Anthony King, 2001. "Australians over the Coming 50 Years: Providing Useful Projections," Brazilian Electronic Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, vol. 4(2), December.
    5. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2014. "Labour Supply Models," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling, volume 127, pages 167-221, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    6. repec:bla:ecorec:v:69:y:1993:i:205:p:179-91 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Productivity Commission, 2005. "Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia," Research Reports, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia, number 16.
    8. repec:bla:ausecr:v:39:y:2006:i:3:p:273-292 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Mitton,Lavinia & Sutherland,Holly & Weeks,Melvyn (ed.), 2000. "Microsimulation Modelling for Policy Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521790062, September.
    10. Hielke Buddelmeyer & John Freebairn & Guyonne Kalb, 2006. "Evaluation of Policy Options to Encourage Welfare to Work," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2006n09, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    11. Massimo Baldini, 2001. "Inequality and Redistribution over the Life-Cycle in Italy: an Analysis with a Dynamic Cohort Microsimulation Model," Brazilian Electronic Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, vol. 4(2), December.
    12. Productivity Commission, 2005. "Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia," Labor and Demography 0506001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Sutherland, H. (ed.), 1997. "The EUROMOD Preparatory Study: A Summary Report," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9725, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2012. "Simulating Histories within Dynamic Microsimulation Models," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 5(1), pages 52-76.
    2. Jan-Maarten van Sonsbeek & j.m.van.sonsbeek@vu.nl, 2011. "Micro simulations on the effects of ageing-related policy measures: The Social Affairs Department of the Netherlands Ageing and Pensions Model," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 4(1), pages 72-99.
    3. Martin Spielauer, 2007. "Dynamic microsimulation of health care demand, health care finance and the economic impact of health behaviours: survey and review," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(1), pages 35-53.
    4. Li, Jinjing & O'Donoghue, Cathal, 2012. "A methodological survey of dynamic microsimulation models," MERIT Working Papers 2012-002, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    5. Nicholas-James Clavet & Jean-Yves Duclos & Bernard Fortin & Steeve Marchand, 2012. "Le Québec, 2004-2030 : une analyse de micro-simulation," CIRANO Project Reports 2012rp-16, CIRANO.
    6. Martin Spielauer & Thomas Horvath & Marian Fink, 2020. "microWELT: A Dynamic Microsimulation Model for the Study of Welfare Transfer Flows in Ageing Societies from a Comparative Welfare State Perspective," WIFO Working Papers 609, WIFO.
    7. Eugenio Zucchelli & Andrew M Jones & Nigel Rice, 2012. "The evaluation of health policies through dynamic microsimulation methods," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 5(1), pages 2-20.
    8. Alessandro Bucciol & Laura Cavalli & Igor Fedotenkov & Paolo Pertile & Veronica Polin & Nicola Sartor & Alessandro Sommacal, 2014. "A large scale OLG model for France, Italy and Sweden: assessing the interpersonal and intrapersonal redistributive effects of public policies," Working Papers 07/2014, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    9. Zucchelli, E & Jones, A.M & Rice, N, 2010. "The evaluation of health policies through microsimulation methods," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 10/03, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    10. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2013. "A survey of dynamic microsimulation models: uses, model structure and methodology," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 6(2), pages 3-55.
    11. Li Tan & Cory Koedel, 2019. "The Effects of Differential Income Replacement and Mortality on U.S. Social Security Redistribution," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(2), pages 613-637, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bourguignon, François & Bussolo, Maurizio, 2013. "Income Distribution in Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1383-1437, Elsevier.
    2. Mantovani, Daniela & Lietz, Christine, 2006. "Lessons from building and using EUROMOD," EUROMOD Working Papers EM5/06, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    3. Diana Warren, 2008. "Retirement Expectations and Labour Force Transitions: The Experience of the Baby Boomer Generation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2008n24, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    4. Olivier Bargain & Tim Callan, 2010. "Analysing the effects of tax-benefit reforms on income distribution: a decomposition approach," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 8(1), pages 1-21, March.
    5. Creedy, John & Guest, Ross, 2008. "Changes in the taxation of private pensions: Macroeconomic and welfare effects," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 693-712.
    6. Creedy, John & Guest, Ross, 2008. "Population ageing and intertemporal consumption: Representative agent versus social planner," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 485-498, May.
    7. Anna Kurowska & Michal Myck & Katharina Wrohlich, 2012. "Family and Labor Market Choices: Requirements to Guide Effective Evidence-Based Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1234, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Andreas Peichl, 2009. "The Benefits and Problems of Linking Micro and Macro Models — Evidence from a Flat Tax Analysis," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 301-329, November.
    9. O'Donoghue, Cathal & Colombino, Ugo & Narazani, Edlira & Locatelli, Marilena & Shima, Isilda, 2008. "Behavioural and welfare effects of basic income policies: a simulation for European countries," EUROMOD Working Papers EM5/08, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    10. Alan Tapper & Alan Fenna & John Phillimore, 2013. "Age Bias in the Australian Welfare State," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 20(1), pages 5-20.
    11. Prosser, Brenton & Clark, Shannon & Davey, Rachel & Parker, Rhian, 2013. "Developing a public health policy-research nexus: An evaluation of Nurse Practitioner models in aged care," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 55-63.
    12. Garry F. Barrett & Yi-Ping Tseng, 2008. "Retirement Saving in Australia," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 34(s1), pages 177-193, November.
    13. Margherita Fort & Nichole Schneeweis & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2011. "More Schooling, More Children: Compulsory Schooling Reforms and Fertility in Europe," Economics working papers 2011-05, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    14. Y. TAMSAMANI, Yasser, 2017. "L’évolution des dépenses de santé au Maroc : une analyse des déterminants démographiques et macro-économiques [The Evolution of the Health Expenditures in Morocco: A Demographics and Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 83996, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Jan 2018.
    15. Peichl, Andreas, 2008. "The benefits of linking CGE and Microsimulation Models - Evidence from a Flat Tax analysis," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 08-6, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    16. Callander, Emily Joy & Schofield, Deborah J. & Shrestha, Rupendra N., 2011. "Multi-dimensional poverty in Australia and the barriers ill health imposes on the employment of the disadvantaged," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 736-742.
    17. Tran, Chung, 2018. "Temptation and taxation with elastic labor," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 351-369.
    18. Manuel García & Juan M. Nave, 2018. "Impacto en las prestaciones de jubilación de la reforma del sistema público de pensiones español," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 224(1), pages 113-137, March.
    19. Xiujian Peng & Dietrich Fausten, 2006. "Population Ageing And Labour Supply Prospects In China From 2005 To 2050," Monash Economics Working Papers 16/06, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    20. Tony Meagher & James Giesecke, 2008. "Population Ageing and Structural Adjustment," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 11(3), pages 227-247.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic microsimulation; forecasting; population ageing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cba:wpaper:63. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Trueman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/natseau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.