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Population Ageing and Structural Adjustment

Author

Listed:
  • Tony Meagher
  • James Giesecke

    (Monash University)

Abstract

The future effects of population ageing on the Australian economy have been widely canvassed in recent years, most notably in government reports concerned with its budgetary position. On the income side, they focus on how ageing affects labour supply and gross domestic product. On the expenditure side, they focus on how ageing affects various spending categories including education, health and aged care. This paper provides a complementary analysis in that it considers how the structure of the economy is likely to be affected by these influences. In particular, it analyses the effects on 64 skill groups, 81 occupations and 106 industries. The effects are modelled by comparing two economies: a base case in which population ageing takes place, and an alternative (counterfactual) economy in which the age structure of the population remains unchanged. The simulations are conducted using the MONASH applied general equilibrium model of the Australian economy and cover the period from 2004-05 to 2024-25. The paper pays particular attention to the implications of the analysis for economic policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Tony Meagher & James Giesecke, 2008. "Population Ageing and Structural Adjustment," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 11(3), pages 227-247.
    • Handle: RePEc:ozl:journl:v:11:y:2008:i:3:p:227-247
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shah, C & Burke, G, 2005. "Skills Shortages: Concepts, Measurement and Policy Responses," Australian Bulletin of Labour, National Institute of Labour Studies.
    2. Productivity Commission, 2005. "Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia," Labor and Demography 0506001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2006. "The Displacement Effect of Labour‐Market Programs: MONASH Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages 26-40, September.
    4. Productivity Commission, 2005. "Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia," Research Reports, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia, number 16, July.
    5. James Giesecke & G.A. Meagher, 2008. "Modelling the Economic Effects of Population Ageing," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-172, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

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    2. Mielczarek, Bożena & Zabawa, Jacek, 2021. "Modelling demographic changes using simulation: Supportive analyses for socioeconomic studies," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Lisenkova, Katerina & Mérette, Marcel & Wright, Robert, 2013. "Population ageing and the labour market: Modelling size and age-specific effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 981-989.
    4. Mariana BALAN & Rodica Perciun, 2016. "Analysis Of The Macroeconomic Effects Of Population Aging In Romania Using Non-Linear Models," Internal Auditing and Risk Management, Athenaeum University of Bucharest, vol. 41(1), pages 13-24, March.
    5. Jouko Kinnunen & Honkatukia, Juha & Ahokas, Jussi, 2012. "Regional effects of curbing future deficits– alternative ways to respond to increasing municipal expenditures," EcoMod2012 3893, EcoMod.
    6. Sarris, Alexander, 2009. "Evolving Structure of World Agricultural Trade and Requirements for New World Trade Rules," Conference papers 331831, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable General Equilibrium Models; Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models; Demographic Trends and Forecasts; General Migration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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