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A Dynamic Model of COVID-19: Contagion and Implications of Isolation Enforcement

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Abstract

We present a dynamic model that produces day-to-day changes in key variables due to the COVID-19 contagion: currently infected people, accumulated infected people, recovered people, deaths, and infected people who require hospitalization. The model is calibrated to the COVID-19 outbreak in Spain so that it replicates the death toll and the phases on the daily deaths curve. Then, we study the effects of the isolation enforcement following the declaration of the State of Alarm (March 14th, 2020). The simulations indicate that both the timing and the intensity of the isolation enforcement are crucial for the COVID-19 spread. Since the infection curve was already very steep at the time of the State of Alarm declaration, a 4-day earlier intervention for social distancing would have reduced the number of COVID-19 infected people by 67%. The model also informs that the isolation enforcement does not delay the peak day of the epidemic but slows down its end. Finally, we find that when social distancing relaxes the evolution of the COVID-19 in Spain will be very sensitive to both the contagion probability (which it is expected to go down due to preventive actions) and the number of interpersonal encounters (which it is expected to go up due to the reopening of economic and social activities). We report a threshold level for the contagion pace to avoid a second COVID-19 outbreak in Spain.

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  • Miguel Casares & Hashmat Khan, 2020. "A Dynamic Model of COVID-19: Contagion and Implications of Isolation Enforcement," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 9915, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
  • Handle: RePEc:nav:ecupna:2001
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    1. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    2. Andrew Atkeson, 2020. "What Will be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios," Staff Report 595, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19
    2. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Behavioral issues

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    1. Miguel Casares & Paul Gomme & Hashmat Khan, 2022. "COVID‐19 pandemic and economic scenarios for Ontario," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 503-539, February.
    2. Margaret E. Slade, 2022. "Many losers and a few winners: The impact of COVID‐19 on Canadian industries and regions," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 282-307, February.
    3. Anna Houstecka & Dongya Koh & Raül Santaeulà lia-Llopis, 2020. "Contagion at Work," Working Papers 1225, Barcelona School of Economics.
    4. Rikard Forslid & Mathias Herzing, 2021. "Assessing the consequences of quarantines during a pandemic," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(7), pages 1115-1128, September.
    5. Nicolò Gatti & Beatrice Retali, 2021. "Fighting the spread of Covid-19 : was the Swiss lockdown worth it?," IdEP Economic Papers 2101, USI Università della Svizzera italiana.

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