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Three triggers? Negative equity, income shocks and institutions as determinants of mortgage default

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  • Linn, Andrew

    (Bank of England)

  • Lyons, Ronan

    (Trinity College Dublin)

Abstract

In understanding the determinants of mortgage default, the consensus has moved from an ‘option theory’ model to the ‘double trigger’ hypothesis. Nonetheless, that consensus is based on within-country studies of default. This paper examines the determinants of mortgage default across five European countries, using a large dataset of over 2.3 million active mortgage loans originated between 1991 and 2013 across over 150 banks. The analysis finds support for both elements of the double trigger: while negative equity itself is a relatively small contributor to default, the effect of unemployment, and other variables such as the interest rate, is stronger for those in negative equity. The double trigger, however, varies by country: country-specific factors are found to have a large effect on default rates. For any given level of a loan’s Loan to Value (‘LTV’) ratio, and as LTV changes, borrowers were more sensitive to the interest rate and unemployment in Ireland and Portugal than in the UK or the Netherlands.

Suggested Citation

  • Linn, Andrew & Lyons, Ronan, 2019. "Three triggers? Negative equity, income shocks and institutions as determinants of mortgage default," Bank of England working papers 812, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0812
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Timothy Dombrowski & R. Kelley Pace & Junbo Wang, 2024. "Imputing Borrower Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Mortgage Default Models," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 462-487, April.
    2. Luong, Thi Mai & Scheule, Harald, 2022. "Benchmarking forecast approaches for mortgage credit risk for forward periods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(2), pages 750-767.
    3. Michelle Bergmann, 2020. "The Determinants of Mortgage Defaults in Australia – Evidence for the Double-trigger Hypothesis," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2020-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Kristin Aarland & Anna Maria Santiago, 2023. "Serious Mortgage Arrears among Immigrant Descendant and Native Participants in a Low-Income Public Starter Mortgage Program: Evidence from Norway," Societies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-28, May.
    5. Chrysovalantis Gaganis & Panagiota Papadimitri & Fotios Pasiouras & Menelaos Tasiou, 2023. "Social traits and credit card default: a two-stage prediction framework," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(2), pages 1231-1253, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage default; negative equity; double trigger; European Union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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