IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed015/40.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Do Foreclosures Exacerbate Housing Downturns?

Author

Listed:
  • Timothy McQuade

    (Stanford University)

  • Adam Guren

    (Boston University)

Abstract

We present a dynamic search model in which foreclosures exacerbate housing busts and delay the housing market's recovery. By raising the seller to buyer ratio and making buyers more selective, foreclosures freeze the market for non-foreclosures and reduce price and sales volume. Because negative equity is necessary for default, foreclosures can cause price-default spirals that amplify an initial shock. To quantitatively assess these channels, the model is calibrated to the recent bust. The estimated amplification is significant: foreclosures exacerbated aggregate price declines by 60 percent and non-foreclosure price declines by 24 percent. Furthermore, policies that slow foreclosures can be counterproductive.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy McQuade & Adam Guren, 2015. "How Do Foreclosures Exacerbate Housing Downturns?," 2015 Meeting Papers 40, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed015:40
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2015/paper_40.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2011. "A Quantitative Analysis of the US Housing and Mortgage Markets and the Mortgage Crisis," 2011 Meeting Papers 1109, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Thomas Chaney & David Sraer & David Thesmar, 2012. "The Collateral Channel: How Real Estate Shocks Affect Corporate Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2381-2409, October.
    3. Genesove, David & Han, Lu, 2012. "Search and matching in the housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 31-45.
    4. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
    5. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2015. "A Quantitative Analysis of the US Housing and Mortgage Markets and the Foreclosure Crisis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 165-184, April.
    6. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Francesco Trebbi, 2015. "Foreclosures, House Prices, and the Real Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(6), pages 2587-2634, December.
    7. Elliot Anenberg & Edward Kung, 2014. "Estimates of the Size and Source of Price Declines Due to Nearby Foreclosures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2527-2551, August.
    8. Aaron Hedlund, 2014. "Illiquidity and its Discontents: Trading Delays and Foreclosures in the Housing Market," Working Papers 1417, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    9. L. Rachel Ngai & Silvana Tenreyro, 2014. "Hot and Cold Seasons in the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 3991-4026, December.
    10. James Albrecht & Pieter Gautier & Susan Vroman, 2016. "Directed Search in the Housing Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 218-231, January.
    11. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the US Household Leverage Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2132-2156, August.
    12. Kenneth P. Brevoort & Cheryl R. Cooper, 2013. "Foreclosure's Wake: The Credit Experiences of Individuals Following Foreclosure," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 41(4), pages 747-792, December.
    13. Adelino, Manuel & Schoar, Antoinette & Severino, Felipe, 2015. "House prices, collateral, and self-employment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 288-306.
    14. Kristopher Gerardi & Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Lee E. Ohanian & Paul S. Willen, 2018. "Can’t Pay or Won’t Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 1098-1131.
    15. Raven Molloy & Hui Shan, 2013. "The Postforeclosure Experience of U.S. Households," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 41(2), pages 225-254, June.
    16. Krainer, John, 2001. "A Theory of Liquidity in Residential Real Estate Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 32-53, January.
    17. Springer, Thomas M, 1996. "Single-Family Housing Transactions: Seller Motivations, Price, and Marketing Time," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 237-254, November.
    18. Allen Head & Huw Lloyd-Ellis & Hongfei Sun, 2014. "Search, Liquidity, and the Dynamics of House Prices and Construction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1172-1210, April.
    19. Nuno Paixao, 2019. "Propagation of House Price Shocks through the Banking System," 2019 Meeting Papers 1237, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Carlos Garriga & Aaron Hedlund, 2020. "Mortgage Debt, Consumption, and Illiquid Housing Markets in the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(6), pages 1603-1634, June.
    21. Daniel L. Greenwald & Tim Landvoigt & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Financial Fragility with SAM?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 651-706, April.
    22. Gerardi, Kristopher & Rosenblatt, Eric & Willen, Paul S. & Yao, Vincent, 2015. "Foreclosure externalities: New evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 42-56.
    23. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    24. Foote, Christopher L. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2008. "Negative equity and foreclosure: Theory and evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 234-245, September.
    25. Robert Shimer & Iván Werning, 2007. "Reservation Wages and Unemployment Insurance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(3), pages 1145-1185.
    26. Wheaton, William C, 1990. "Vacancy, Search, and Prices in a Housing Market Matching Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1270-1292, December.
    27. Elliot Anenberg, 2016. "Information Frictions And Housing Market Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 1449-1479, November.
    28. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/75koqefued8i7pihbrl9u84p4u is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2013. "The Determinants of Attitudes toward Strategic Default on Mortgages," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1473-1515, August.
    30. Owen Lamont & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "Leverage and House-Price Dynamics in U.S. Cities," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 30(3), pages 498-514, Autumn.
    31. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Parag Pathak, 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2108-2131, August.
    32. Hedlund, Aaron, 2016. "Illiquidity and its discontents: Trading delays and foreclosures in the housing market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-13.
    33. Therese C. Scharlemann & Stephen H. Shore, 2016. "The Effect of Negative Equity on Mortgage Default: Evidence From HAMP’s Principal Reduction Alternative," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(10), pages 2850-2883.
    34. Williams, Joseph T, 1995. "Pricing Real Assets with Costly Search," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 55-90.
    35. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Morales, Eduardo & Nathanson, Charles G., 2014. "Housing dynamics: An urban approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 45-56.
    36. Aaron Hedlund, 2016. "The cyclical dynamics of illiquid housing, debt, and foreclosures," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(1), pages 289-328, March.
    37. Andreas Fuster & Paul S. Willen, 2017. "Payment Size, Negative Equity, and Mortgage Default," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 167-191, November.
    38. Darrell Duffie & Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Valuation in Over-the-Counter Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1865-1900, November.
    39. Been, Vicki & Ellen, Ingrid Gould & Schwartz, Amy Ellen & Stiefel, Leanna & Weinstein, Meryle, 2011. "Does losing your home mean losing your school?: Effects of foreclosures on the school mobility of children," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 407-414, July.
    40. Elliot Anenberg & Patrick Bayer, 2013. "Endogenous Sources of Volatility in Housing Markets: The Joint Buyer-Seller Problem," NBER Working Papers 18980, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Kristopher Gerardi & Eric Rosenblatt & Paul S. Willen & Vincent W. Yao, 2012. "Foreclosure externalities: some new evidence," Public Policy Discussion Paper 12-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    42. Robert Novy‐Marx, 2009. "Hot and Cold Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 1-22, March.
    43. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Momentum Traders in the Housing Market: Survey Evidence and a Search Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 406-411, May.
    44. Neil Bhutta & Jane Dokko & Hui Shan, 2017. "Consumer Ruthlessness and Mortgage Default during the 2007 to 2009 Housing Bust," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(6), pages 2433-2466, December.
    45. Martin Schneider & Monika Piazzesi, 2009. "Momentum traders in a search model of the housing market," 2009 Meeting Papers 1266, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    46. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2014. "What Explains the 2007–2009 Drop in Employment?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2197-2223, November.
    47. Adam M. Guren, 2018. "House Price Momentum and Strategic Complementarity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 1172-1218.
    48. Nuno Paixao, 2018. "Housing Prices and Consumer Spending: The Bank Balance Sheet Channel," 2018 Meeting Papers 1017, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    49. Terrence M. Clauretie & Nasser Daneshvary, 2009. "Estimating the House Foreclosure Discount Corrected for Spatial Price Interdependence and Endogeneity of Marketing Time," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 43-67, March.
    50. James Albrecht & Axel Anderson & Eric Smith & Susan Vroman, 2007. "Opportunistic Matching In The Housing Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(2), pages 641-664, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_016, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    2. Han, Lu & Strange, William C., 2015. "The Microstructure of Housing Markets," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 813-886, Elsevier.
    3. Miroslav Gabrovski & Victor Ortego-Marti, 2025. "Home Construction Financing and Search Frictions in the Housing Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 55, January.
    4. Gabrovski, Miroslav & Ortego-Marti, Victor, 2021. "Search and credit frictions in the housing market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Miroslav Gabrovski & Victor Ortego-Marti, 2021. "Efficiency in the Housing Market with Search Frictions," Working Papers 202108, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    6. Essi Eerola & Niku Maattanen, 2018. "Borrowing constraints and housing market liquidity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 27, pages 184-204, January.
    7. L. Rachel Ngai & Kevin D. Sheedy, 2024. "The Ins And Outs Of Selling Houses: Understanding Housing‐Market Volatility," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1415-1440, August.
    8. Espen R Moen & Plamen T Nenov & Florian Sniekers, 2021. "Buying First or Selling First in Housing Markets," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 38-81.
    9. Alina Arefeva, 2016. "How Auctions Amplify House-Price Fluctuations," 2016 Meeting Papers 714, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Davis, Morris A. & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2015. "Housing, Finance, and the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 753-811, Elsevier.
    11. Elliot Anenberg & Patrick Bayer, 2013. "Endogenous sources of volatility in housing markets: the joint buyer-seller problem," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Lerbs, Oliver & Teske, Markus, 2016. "The house price-vacancy curve," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-082, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    13. Bielecki, Marcin & Stähler, Nikolai, 2022. "Labor Tax Reductions In Europe: The Role Of Property Taxation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 419-451, March.
    14. Gabrovski, Miroslav & Ortego-Marti, Victor, 2019. "The cyclical behavior of the Beveridge Curve in the housing market," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 361-381.
    15. Daisy J. Huang & Charles Ka Yui Leung & Chung-Yi Tse, 2018. "What Accounts for the Differences in Rent-Price Ratio and Turnover Rate? A Search-and-Matching Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 431-475, October.
    16. Gan, Li & Wang, Pengfei & Zhang, Qinghua, 2018. "Market thickness and the impact of unemployment on housing market outcomes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 27-49.
    17. Gaetano Lisi, 2014. "Home-seekers in the Housing Market," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 17(1), pages 47-62.
    18. Hedlund, Aaron, 2016. "Illiquidity and its discontents: Trading delays and foreclosures in the housing market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-13.
    19. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider & Johannes Stroebel, 2020. "Segmented Housing Search," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(3), pages 720-759, March.
    20. DeFusco, Anthony A. & Nathanson, Charles G. & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Speculative dynamics of prices and volume," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 205-229.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed015:40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.