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Modelling and Forecasting with County Court Data: Regional Mortgage Possession Claims and Orders in England and Wales

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  • Janine Aron
  • John Muellbauer

Abstract

This paper presents new quarterly panel data models for county court claims and orders for mortgage possession for seven regions of England plus Wales. Different types of data on mortgage possessions are compared. The innovations include the treatment of difficult to observe variations in loan quality and shifts in forbearance policy by lenders, by common indicators based on dummy variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2011. "Modelling and Forecasting with County Court Data: Regional Mortgage Possession Claims and Orders in England and Wales," SERC Discussion Papers 0070, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:sercdp:0070
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brookes, Martin & Dicks, Mike & Pradhan, Mahmood, 1994. "An empirical model of mortgage arrears and repossessions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 134-144, April.
    2. F J Breedon & M A S Joyce, 1993. "House prices, arrears and possessions: A three equation model for the UK," Bank of England working papers 14, Bank of England.
    3. Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine, 2010. "Modelling and Forecasting UK Mortgage Arrears and Possessions," CEPR Discussion Papers 7986, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Parag Pathak, 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2108-2131, August.
    5. Boheim, Rene & Taylor, Mark P., 2000. "My Home Was My Castle: Evictions and Repossessions in Britain," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 287-319, December.
    6. Hollie Cairns & Gwilym Pryce, 2005. "An Analysis of Mortgage Arrears Using the British Household Panel Survey," ERES eres2005_134, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
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    Cited by:

    1. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2016. "“Modelling and forecasting mortgage delinquency and foreclosure in the UK.”," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 32-53.
    2. Lazarov, Vladimir & Hinterschweiger, Marc, 2018. "Determinants of distress in the UK owner-occupier and buy-to-let mortgage markets," Bank of England working papers 760, Bank of England.
    3. Andrew Linn & Ronan C. Lyons, 2020. "Three Triggers? Negative Equity, Income Shocks and Institutions as Determinants of Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 549-575, November.
    4. Andrew Linn & Ronan C Lyons, 2018. "The Triple Trigger? Negative Equity, Income Shocks and Institutions as Determinants of Mortgage Default," Trinity Economics Papers tep0718, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.

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    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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