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Mortgage Default and Possession under Recourse: A Competing Hazards Approach

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  • Lambrecht, Bart M
  • Perraudin, William R M
  • Satchell, Steven

Abstract

Recent studies by Ambrose, Buttimer, and Capone have stressed the fact that lender and borrower decisions after the initial default on a mortgage may significantly affect the amount and timing of recoveries and hence, more broadly, the value and riskiness of mortgage loan portfolios. This study uses microeconomic data from the UK to examine the timing decisions of mortgage lenders and borrowers when mortgages are in default. The results suggest that salary and interest rates influence timing decisions more than loan-to-value ratios do and that lenders and borrowers accelerate the resolution of delinquent mortgages as the economic climate deteriorates.

Suggested Citation

  • Lambrecht, Bart M & Perraudin, William R M & Satchell, Steven, 2003. "Mortgage Default and Possession under Recourse: A Competing Hazards Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 425-442, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:35:y:2003:i:3:p:425-42
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2010. "The Duration of Foreclosures in the Subprime Mortgage Market: A Competing Risks Model with Mixing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 109-129, February.
    2. Nikola Kojucharov & Clyde F. Martin & Robert F. Martin & Lili Xu, 2009. "The subprime mortgage crisis: irrational exuberance or rational error?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
    3. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2010. "Modelling and Forecasting UK Mortgage Arrears and Possessions," Economics Series Working Papers 499, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2016. "“Modelling and forecasting mortgage delinquency and foreclosure in the UK.”," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 32-53.
    5. Lazarov, Vladimir & Hinterschweiger, Marc, 2018. "Determinants of distress in the UK owner-occupier and buy-to-let mortgage markets," Bank of England working papers 760, Bank of England.
    6. Pruszkowski Tomasz, 2017. "Deficiency Judgments as a Mortgage Pricing Factor," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 53(2), pages 57-68, June.
    7. Shu Ling Chiang & Ming Shann Tsai & Shan Jiang, 2021. "The Influences of Foreclosure Factors on the Value, Yield, Duration and Convexity of a Mortgage," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S2), pages 361-394, September.
    8. Youngha Cho & Soosung Hwang & Steve Satchell, 2012. "The Optimal Mortgage Loan Portfolio in UK Regional Residential Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 645-677, October.
    9. Theresa Kuchler & Johannes Stroebel, 2009. "Foreclosure and Bankruptcy--Policy Conclusions from the Current Crisis," Discussion Papers 08-037, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    10. Luca Barbaglia & Sebastiano Manzan & Elisa Tosetti, 2023. "Forecasting Loan Default in Europe with Machine Learning," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 569-596.
    11. Agata M. Lozinskaia & Evgeniy M. Ozhegov & Alexander M. Karminsky, 2016. "Discontinuity in Relative Credit Losses: Evidence from Defaults on Government-Insured Residential Mortgages," HSE Working papers WP BRP 55/FE/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    12. Tsai, Ming-Shann & Liao, Szu-Lang & Chiang, Shu-Ling, 2009. "Analyzing yield, duration and convexity of mortgage loans under prepayment and default risks," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 92-103, June.
    13. Xudong An & John Clapp & Yongheng Deng, 2010. "Omitted Mobility Characteristics and Property Market Dynamics: Application to Mortgage Termination," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 245-271, October.
    14. Szu‐Lang Liao & Ming‐Shann Tsai & Shu‐Ling Chiang, 2008. "Closed‐Form Mortgage Valuation Using Reduced‐Form Model," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 313-347, June.
    15. Bhattacharya, Arnab & Wilson, Simon P. & Soyer, Refik, 2019. "A Bayesian approach to modeling mortgage default and prepayment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(3), pages 1112-1124.
    16. Andrew Linn & Ronan C. Lyons, 2020. "Three Triggers? Negative Equity, Income Shocks and Institutions as Determinants of Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 549-575, November.
    17. Chang, Chia-Chien, 2014. "Valuation Of Mortgage Insurance Contracts With Counterparty Default Risk: Reduced-Form Approach," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 303-334, May.
    18. Michelle A. Danis & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2005. "A dynamic look at subprime loan performance," Working Papers 2005-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. Ming Shann Tsai & Shu Ling Chiang, 2015. "A General Pricing Model for a Mortgage Insurance Contract Considering the Effects of Multivariate Random Variables on Termination Probabilities and Loss Rate," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 289-307, April.
    20. Refik Soyer & Feng Xu, 2010. "Assessment of mortgage default risk via Bayesian reliability models," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(3), pages 308-330, May.
    21. Sarah W. Carroll & Wenli Li, 2008. "The homeownership experience of households in bankruptcy," Working Papers 08-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    22. Ming‐Chi Chen & Chia‐Chien Chang & Shih‐Kuei Lin & So‐De Shyu, 2010. "Estimation of Housing Price Jump Risks and Their Impact on the Valuation of Mortgage Insurance Contracts," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 399-422, June.
    23. Andrew Linn & Ronan C Lyons, 2018. "The Triple Trigger? Negative Equity, Income Shocks and Institutions as Determinants of Mortgage Default," Trinity Economics Papers tep0718, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    24. Danis, Michelle A. & Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2008. "The delinquency of subprime mortgages," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 67-90.

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