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The maternity capital and probability of second birth in Russia: Explaining the last 10 Years' fertility patterns

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  • Dmitriy Gorskiy

    (Vysšaja škola èkonomiki)

Abstract

This presentation tries to explain why the fertility rate is declining from 2014 to 2019 in Russia. Duration models are used for modeling: hazard and survival functions are studied for giving birth to a second child. The empirical study is carried out on the microdata of the RLMS-HSE from 2000 to 2019, the regional data from Rosstat, and the data on the region's maternity capital programs amount by years from the open sources. We find that the indexation of the federal Maternity Capital program leads to a 2.1% increase in the hazard of a second birth; however, there was no indexation from 2015 until 2019. We also show that regional Maternity Capital programs affect the probability of a second birth, and the estimated value is two times bigger than for federal program, but regional government does not treat the programs with attention. The last important factor negatively affecting fertility is the economic recession of 2014. Results are robust to different metrics (proportional hazard and accelerated failure time), functional forms (parametric and nonparametric), and subsamples (married women and working women).

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitriy Gorskiy, 2023. "The maternity capital and probability of second birth in Russia: Explaining the last 10 Years' fertility patterns," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2023 30, Stata Users Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:boc:fsug23:30
    as

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    File URL: http://repec.org/frsug2023/France23_Gorskiy.pdf
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