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Original sin redux: role of duration risk

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  • Carol Bertaut
  • Valentina Bruno
  • Hyun Song Shin

Abstract

We highlight the role of duration and exchange rate risks on portfolio flows by using a unique and comprehensive database of US investor flows into emerging market government bonds denominated in local currency. Borrowing long-term mitigates roll-over risk but amplifies valuation changes that further interact with currency movements. Our analysis highlights the double-edged nature of long-term borrowing and draws attention to market stress dynamics from the nonbank financial sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Carol Bertaut & Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2023. "Original sin redux: role of duration risk," BIS Working Papers 1109, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1109
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Aaron Mehrotra & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2024. "Keeping the momentum: how finance can continue to support growth in EMEs," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Keeping the momentum: how finance can continue to support growth in EMEs, volume 127, pages 1-39, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Longaric, Pablo Anaya & Cera, Katharina & Georgiadis, Georgios & Kaufmann, Christoph, 2025. "Investment funds and euro disaster risk," Working Paper Series 3029, European Central Bank.
    4. Pérez Caldentey, Esteban & Vernengo, Matías, 2024. "A Financially Driven Business Cycle for Latin America and the Caribbean," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 77(1), pages 5-36.
    5. Claudia M. Buch & Linda S. Goldberg, 2024. "International Banking and Nonbank Financial Intermediation: Global Liquidity, Regulation, and Implications," Staff Reports 1091, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Guilherme Suedekum, 2023. "Local Currency Sovereign Debt Markets, Global Financial Conditions and the Role of Foreign Investors," IHEID Working Papers 19-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    portfolio flows; local currency bonds; non-bank financial intermediaries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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