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Original sin redux: role of duration risk

Author

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  • Carol Bertaut
  • Valentina Bruno
  • Hyun Song Shin

Abstract

We highlight the role of duration and exchange rate risks on portfolio flows by using a unique and comprehensive database of US investor flows into emerging market government bonds denominated in local currency. Borrowing long-term mitigates roll-over risk but amplifies valuation changes that further interact with currency movements. Our analysis highlights the double-edged nature of long-term borrowing and draws attention to market stress dynamics from the nonbank financial sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Carol Bertaut & Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2023. "Original sin redux: role of duration risk," BIS Working Papers 1109, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1109
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Moro, Alessandro & Zaghini, Andrea, 2023. "The green sin: How exchange rate volatility and financial openness affect green premia," CFS Working Paper Series 715, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    2. Longaric, Pablo Anaya & Cera, Katharina & Georgiadis, Georgios & Kaufmann, Christoph, 2025. "Investment funds and euro disaster risk," Working Paper Series 3029, European Central Bank.
    3. Claudia M. Buch & Linda S. Goldberg, 2024. "International Banking and Nonbank Financial Intermediation: Global Liquidity, Regulation, and Implications," Staff Reports 1091, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Bank for International Settlements, 2024. "Keeping the momentum:how finance can continue to support growth in EMEs," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 148.
    5. Pérez Caldentey, Esteban & Vernengo, Matías, 2024. "A Financially Driven Business Cycle for Latin America and the Caribbean," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 77(1), pages 5-36.
    6. Guilherme Suedekum, 2023. "Local Currency Sovereign Debt Markets, Global Financial Conditions and the Role of Foreign Investors," IHEID Working Papers 19-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    portfolio flows; local currency bonds; non-bank financial intermediaries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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