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Monetary policy announcements and expectations: the case of Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Ana Aguilar
  • Carlo Alcaraz Pribaz
  • Victoria Nuguer
  • Jessica Roldán-Peña

Abstract

In this paper we study the effects of Mexico's Central Bank monetary policy decisions on the expectations about inflation and monetary policy rate expectations of private forecasters. We estimate a fixed effect model at analyst level using a panel of professional forecasters from 2010 to 2017. We study the differences in expectations before and after a monetary policy announcement and we compare them when there are no announcements. We find that professional forecasters "listen" to the central bank, i.e. the changes in their short-run expectations are different when there are monetary policy announcements. Also, we find that analysts' surprises in realized inflation affect short-term inflation expectations but do not affect long-term inflation expectations suggesting anchored inflation expectations. Aditionally, monetary policy surprises have an impact on end-of-the-year inflation expectations and reference rate expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Aguilar & Carlo Alcaraz Pribaz & Victoria Nuguer & Jessica Roldán-Peña, 2022. "Monetary policy announcements and expectations: the case of Mexico," BIS Working Papers 1026, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank communication; survey microdata; monetary policy interest rate expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

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