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An evaluation of private forecasts of interest rate targets in Brazil

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  • Baghestani, Hamid
  • Marchon, Cassia

Abstract

This study shows that the private sector accurately predicts short-term interest rate targets set by the Brazilian monetary authorities. With increased transparency under inflation targeting, such evidence suggests that the public perceives the central bank as credible.

Suggested Citation

  • Baghestani, Hamid & Marchon, Cassia, 2012. "An evaluation of private forecasts of interest rate targets in Brazil," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 352-355.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:115:y:2012:i:3:p:352-355
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.12.077
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2004. "A note on the effects of monetary policy surprises on the Brazilian term structure of interest rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 283-287, April.
    3. Minella, Andre & de Freitas, Paulo Springer & Goldfajn, Ilan & Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1015-1040, December.
    4. Goncalves, Carlos Eduardo S. & Salles, Joao M., 2008. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 312-318, February.
    5. Alan S. Blinder, 2000. "Central-Bank Credibility: Why Do We Care? How Do We Build It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1421-1431, December.
    6. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 105-109, May.
    7. Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 122-157, March.
    8. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann & Ivana Komunjer, 2005. "Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under Flexible Loss," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(4), pages 1107-1125.
    9. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    10. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-684, November.
    11. Lyziak, Tomasz & Mackiewicz, Joanna & Stanislawska, Ewa, 2007. "Central bank transparency and credibility: The case of Poland, 1998-2004," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 67-87, March.
    12. Brito, Ricardo D. & Bystedt, Brianne, 2010. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: Panel evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 198-210, March.
    13. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003. "Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Almeida, Thiago Ramos, 2024. "Estimating time-varying factors’ variance in the string-term structure model with stochastic volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    2. Ana Aguilar & Carlo Alcaraz Pribaz & Victoria Nuguer & Jessica Roldán-Peña, 2022. "Monetary policy announcements and expectations: the case of Mexico," BIS Working Papers 1026, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Hamid Baghestani, 2022. "Mortgage rate predictability and consumer home-buying assessments," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(3), pages 593-603, July.
    4. Hamid Baghestani & Cassia Marchon, 2015. "On the accuracy of private forecasts of inflation and growth in Brazil," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(2), pages 370-381, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Credibility; Inflation targeting; Emerging market economies; Selic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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