IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/soecon/v78y2012i4p1202-1221.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What to Target? Inflation or Exchange Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Shu Lin
  • Haichun Ye

Abstract

This study empirically compares, for the first time, the popular exchange‐rate–targeting regime with the recently emerged inflation‐targeting framework in developing countries. Applying a variety of propensity score matching methods and dynamic panel generalized method of moments (GMM) regressions to a sample of 50 developing countries for the years 1990–2006, we find strong and robust evidence that, compared to exchange‐rate targeting, inflation targeting leads to a significantly lower inflation rate, and the lower inflation rate does not come at a cost of slower growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Shu Lin & Haichun Ye, 2012. "What to Target? Inflation or Exchange Rate," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(4), pages 1202-1221, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:78:y:2012:i:4:p:1202-1221
    DOI: 10.4284/0038-4038-78.4.1202
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.4284/0038-4038-78.4.1202
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4284/0038-4038-78.4.1202?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ammer, John & Freeman, Richard T., 1995. "Inflation targeting in the 1990s: The experiences of New Zealand, Canada, and the United Kingdom," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 165-192, May.
    2. Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Posen, Adam S., 1999. "Does talk matter after all? Inflation targeting and central bank behavior," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/04, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    4. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Noy, Ilan, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 712-724, May.
    5. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco Jose, 2006. "Does Political Instability Lead to Higher Inflation? A Panel Data Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1379-1389, August.
    6. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    7. Carlos Garcia & Jorge Restrepo & Mr. Scott Roger, 2009. "Hybrid Inflation Targeting Regimes," IMF Working Papers 2009/234, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    9. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
    10. Rose, Andrew K., 2007. "A stable international monetary system emerges: Inflation targeting is Bretton Woods, reversed," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 663-681, September.
    11. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1998. "International Experiences With Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Seminar Papers 648, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    12. Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos‐Francia, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 113-134, February.
    13. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2009. "Does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 118-123, May.
    14. Johnson, David R., 2002. "The effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation: evidence from an 11 country panel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1521-1538, November.
    15. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Does high inflation cause central bankers to lose their job? Evidence based on a new data set," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 778-787, December.
    16. Carlos Eduardo S. Gonçalves & Alexandre Carvalho, 2009. "Inflation Targeting Matters: Evidence from OECD Economies' Sacrifice Ratios," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 233-243, February.
    17. Taylor, John B. (ed.), 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226791258, July.
    18. Edwin M. Truman, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in the World Economy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 346, April.
    19. Carlos Capistr¡N & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 113-134, February.
    20. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
    22. Goncalves, Carlos Eduardo S. & Salles, Joao M., 2008. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 312-318, February.
    23. Lin, Shu, 2006. "Does it pay to go to the corners? An empirical evaluation of the bipolar view of exchange rate regimes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 342-347, September.
    24. Yanliang Miao, 2009. "In Search of Successful Inflation Targeting: Evidence From An Inflation Targeting Index," IMF Working Papers 2009/148, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2007. "Does inflation targeting really make a difference? Evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2521-2533, November.
    26. Louviere,Jordan J. & Hensher,David A. & Swait,Joffre D., 2000. "Stated Choice Methods," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521788304, January.
    27. Ball, Laurence, 2010. "The Performance of Alternative Monetary Regimes," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 23, pages 1303-1343, Elsevier.
    28. Johannes M. Groeneveld, 1998. "Inflation Patterns and Monetary Policy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1532.
    29. Shu Lin, 2010. "On the International Effects of Inflation Targeting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 195-199, February.
    30. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Aug), pages 9-110.
    31. Carlos Eduardo S. Gon«Alves & Alexandre Carvalho, 2009. "Inflation Targeting Matters: Evidence from OECD Economies' Sacrifice Ratios," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 233-243, February.
    32. Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Inflation Targeting: What Have We Learned?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 195-233, August.
    33. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Garriga, Ana Carolina & Rodriguez, Cesar M., 2023. "Central bank independence and inflation volatility in developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1320-1341.
    2. Abdelkader Aguir & Mounir Smida, 2014. "The Effects of Inflation Targeting on Macroeconomics Performance," Post-Print hal-03791288, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shu Lin & Haichun Ye, 2012. "What to Target? Inflation or Exchange Rate," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(4), pages 1202-1221, April.
    2. Shu Lin & Haichun Ye, 2012. "What to Target? Inflation or Exchange Rate," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 1202-1221, April.
    3. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271122, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Huang, Ho-Chuan & Yeh, Chih-Chuan & Wang, Xiuhua, 2019. "Inflation targeting and output-inflation tradeoffs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 102-120.
    5. Huang, Ho-Chuan (River) & Yeh, Chih-Chuan, 2017. "Level, structure, and volatility of financial development and inflation targeting," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 108-124.
    6. Hippolyte W. Balima & Eric G. Kilama & Rene Tapsoba, 2017. "Settling the Inflation Targeting Debate: Lights from a Meta-Regression Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2017/213, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Balima, Hippolyte W. & Kilama, Eric G. & Tapsoba, René, 2020. "Inflation targeting: Genuine effects or publication selection bias?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Soe, Than Than & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2018. "Inflation targeting and income velocity in developing economies: Some international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 44-61.
    9. Zafar Hayat & Saher Masood, 2022. "Inflation Targeting Skepticism: Myth or Reality? A Way Forward for Pakistan (Article)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 1-27.
    10. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2009. "Does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 118-123, May.
    11. Adina Ionela Străchinaru & Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu, 2019. "Assessing the Sustainability of Inflation Targeting: Evidence from EU Countries with Non-EURO Currencies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-13, October.
    12. Shu Lin & Haichun Ye, 2013. "Does Inflation Targeting Help Reduce Financial Dollarization?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1253-1274, October.
    13. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Noy, Ilan, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 712-724, May.
    14. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José, 2012. "Is inflation targeting a good remedy to control inflation?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 178-191.
    15. Atsuyoshi Morozumi & Michael Bleaney & Zakari Mumuni, 2020. "Inflation targeting in low‐income countries: Does IT work?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 1529-1550, November.
    16. Balima, Wenéyam Hippolyte & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2017. "Sovereign debt risk in emerging market economies: Does inflation targeting adoption make any difference?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 360-377.
    17. Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Wong, Kin Ming, 2015. "What Should Central Banks Target? Evidence on the Impact of Monetary Policy Regimes on Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 63499, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Anna Samarina & Mirre Terpstra & Jakob De Haan, 2014. "Inflation targeting and inflation performance: a comparative analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 41-56, January.
    19. Soe, Than Than & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2018. "Inflation targeting and exchange market pressure in developing economies: Some international evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 263-272.
    20. Bao-We-Wal Bambe, 2023. "Inflation Targeting and Private Domestic Investment in Developing Countries," Post-Print hal-04227639, HAL.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:78:y:2012:i:4:p:1202-1221. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)2325-8012 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.