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Inflation Dynamics in Mexico: A Characterization Using the New Phillips Curve

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  • Ramos Francia Manuel
  • Torres García Alberto

Abstract

The paper describes the dynamics of inflation in the Mexican economy from 1992 to 2006 using the New Phillips curve framework. The purpose is to identify key structural characteristics of the economy (structural parameters) that define the short-run dynamics of inflation. Results show that despite a previous history of high inflation, a hybrid version of the New Phillips curve fits the data well for the period 1992-2006. The short-run dynamics of inflation in Mexico are best described when both backward and forward looking components are considered. In addition, estimates for the sub-sample 1997-2006 show that as inflation has fallen, on average, prices remain fixed for a longer horizon, the fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule of thumb to set their price decreases and the forward looking component of the inflation process gains importance.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramos Francia Manuel & Torres García Alberto, 2006. "Inflation Dynamics in Mexico: A Characterization Using the New Phillips Curve," Working Papers 2006-15, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2006-15
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Alberto Zarazúa Juárez, 2021. "Macroprudential regulation as part of the Mexican policy toolkit," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, Enero - M.
    2. Tarek Kacemi & Sallahuddin Hassan, 2018. "Inflation dynamics analysis in selected MENA countries," Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 6(2), pages :160-168, June.
    3. Sylvia Beatriz Guillermo Peón & Martín Alberto Rodríguez Brindis, 2014. "Analyzing the Exchange Rate Pass-through in Mexico: Evidence Post Inflation Targeting Implementation," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 32(74), pages 18-35, June.
    4. Jarko Fidrmuc & Katarína Danišková, 2020. "Meta-Analysis of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Developed and Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 10-31, January.
    5. Yazgan M. Ege & Yilmazkuday Hakan, 2005. "Inflation Dynamics of Turkey: A Structural Estimation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, March.
    6. Rodolfo Cermeño & F. Alejandro Villagómez & Javier Orellana Polo, 2012. "Monetary policy rules in a small open economy: an application to Mexico :," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 15, pages 259-286, November.
    7. Michael Bordo & Pierre Siklos, 2014. "Central Bank Credibility, Reputation and Inflation Targeting in Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 20693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel & Tapia, Edwin & Pérez-Peña, Anna Karina, 2024. "Inflation dynamics under different weather regimes: Evidence from Mexico," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    9. Eduardo Loría & Raúl Tirado, 2022. "Sacrifice rate and labour precariousness in Mexico, 2005Q1-2019Q4," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 41(87), pages 427-456, December.
    10. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Koukouritakis, Minoas, 2013. "Exchange rate misalignment and inflation rate persistence: Evidence from Latin American countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 202-218.
    11. José J. Sidaoui & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2008. "The monetary transmission mechanism in Mexico: recent developments," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 363-394, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Francisco G. Villarreal, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Inequality under Household Heterogeneity and Incomplete Markets," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 45(90), pages 74-110.
    13. Rodolfo Cermeño & F. Alejandro Villagómez & Javier Orellana Polo, 2012. "Monetary policy rules in a small open economy: an application to Mexico :," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 15, pages 259-286, November.
    14. De La Peña, Rogelio & García, Ignacio, 2023. "Untangling crises: GFC and COVID-19 through the lens of a DSGE model," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(2).
    15. Best, Gabriela, 2013. "Fear of floating or monetary policy as usual? A structural analysis of Mexico's monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 45-62.
    16. García-Verdú Santiago, 2012. "The Evolution of Inflation Expectations in Mexico," Working Papers 2012-06, Banco de México.
    17. Steffen Ahrens & Stephen Sacht, 2014. "Estimating a high-frequency New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 607-628, March.
    18. Villarreal, Francisco G., 2014. "Monetary Policy and Inequality in Mexico," MPRA Paper 57074, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Egorov D.A. (Егоров, Д.А.) & Perevyshina E.A. (Перевышина, Е.А.), 2016. "Modelling of Inflationary Processes in Russia [Моделирование Инфляционных Процессов В России]," Working Papers 2138, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    20. Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos‐Francia, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics In Latin America," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(3), pages 349-362, July.
    21. Reyna Vergara González & Elías Eduardo Gutiérrez Alva, 2014. "Evaluación del cumplimiento de los objetivos de inflación y el papel de las expectativas: evidencia para México, 1995-2012," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 1-32, November.
    22. Mutiu Gbade Rasaki, 2017. "An Estimated New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 13(2), pages 203-211, April.
    23. Carlos Alberto Zarazúa Juárez, 2021. "Macroprudential regulation as part of the Mexican policy toolkit," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, Enero - M.
    24. André Marine Charlotte & Medina Espidio Sebastián, 2022. "Optimal Robust Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2022-17, Banco de México.

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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