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Modeling Default Probabilities: the case of Brazil

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  • Benjamin M. Tabak
  • Daniel O. Cajueiro
  • A. Luduvice

Abstract

Using disaggregated data from the Brazilian stock market, we calculate default probabilities for 30 different economic sectors. Empirical results suggest that domestic macroeconomic factors can explain these default probabilities. In addition, we construct the Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) and the ultrametric hierarchical tree with the MST based on default probabilities to disclose common trends, which reveals that some sectors form clusters. The results of this paper imply that macroeconomic variables have distinct effects on default probabilities, which is important to take into account in credit risk modeling and the generation of stress test scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin M. Tabak & Daniel O. Cajueiro & A. Luduvice, 2011. "Modeling Default Probabilities: the case of Brazil," Working Papers Series 232, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:232
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    3. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Takami, Marcelo & Rocha, Jadson M.C. & Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Souza, Sergio R.S., 2014. "Directed clustering coefficient as a measure of systemic risk in complex banking networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 211-216.
    4. Gautier Marti & Frank Nielsen & Miko{l}aj Bi'nkowski & Philippe Donnat, 2017. "A review of two decades of correlations, hierarchies, networks and clustering in financial markets," Papers 1703.00485, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    5. Barbi, A.Q. & Prataviera, G.A., 2019. "Nonlinear dependencies on Brazilian equity network from mutual information minimum spanning trees," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 876-885.
    6. de Carvalho, Pablo Jose Campos & Gupta, Aparna, 2018. "A network approach to unravel asset price comovement using minimal dependence structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 119-132.
    7. Azusa Takeyama & Nick Constantinou & Dmitri Vinogradov, 2012. "A Framework for Extracting the Probability of Default from Stock Option Prices," IMES Discussion Paper Series 12-E-14, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    8. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Wanke, Peter, 2014. "Banking efficiency in Brazil," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 54-65.

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