IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfin/v14y2004i5p419-438.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The market's view on the probability of banking sector failure: cross-country comparisons

Author

Listed:
  • Bystrom, Hans N. E.

Abstract

Considering the increasingly international banks of today, the health ofa country’s banking sector is crucial not only to the country’s growthand prosperity but also to the rest of the international financialcommunity. Early warning signals of a banking sector in trouble or apending banking crisis would therefore be of great value to both banks,investors and banking regulators/supervisors world wide. Di.erentwarning signals exist and in this paper we investigate how the stockmarket can provide a market-based indicator of banking sector health.Hall and Miles (1990) suggests an approach of estimating defaultprobabilities of individual banks using only their stock marketvaluations and volatilities. In this paper we apply an aggregatedversion of their approach to banking sectors around the world in bothdeveloped and emerging economies and study the market’s assessment ofthe probability of systemic banking crises in these countries over thelast decade, including the Asian Crisis 1997-98. In addition, weinvestigate whether there is a relationship between the probability ofbanking sector failure and institutional/structural features of theactual banking sector. The quality of governance and the degree of lawand order in a country is found to be significantly negatively relatedto the market based failure probabilities as is an explicit depositinsurance during periods of crisis. Keywords: banking sector; bankingcrisis; default probability; market discipline
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Bystrom, Hans N. E., 2004. "The market's view on the probability of banking sector failure: cross-country comparisons," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 419-438, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:14:y:2004:i:5:p:419-438
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042-4431(04)00021-6
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clare, Andrew & Priestley, Richard, 2002. "Calculating the probability of failure of the Norwegian banking sector," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 21-40, February.
    2. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ms. Enrica Detragiache, 2000. "Does Deposit Insurance Increase Banking System Stability?," IMF Working Papers 2000/003, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Pettway, Richard H., 1980. "Potential Insolvency, Market Efficiency, and Bank Regulation of Large Commercial Banks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 219-236, March.
    4. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2002. "Does deposit insurance increase banking system stability? An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1373-1406, October.
    5. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1998. "Law and Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1113-1155, December.
    6. James R. Barth & Gerard Caprio Jr. & Ross Levine, 2001. "Banking Systems around the Globe: Do Regulation and Ownership Affect Performance and Stability?," NBER Chapters, in: Prudential Supervision: What Works and What Doesn't, pages 31-96, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "Bank-based and market-based financial systems - cross-country comparisons," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2143, The World Bank.
    8. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    9. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "A new database on financial development and structure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2146, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Apanard P. Prabha & Clas Wihlborg & Thomas D. Willett, 2012. "Market Discipline for Financial Institutions and Markets for Information," Chapters, in: James R. Barth & Chen Lin & Clas Wihlborg (ed.), Research Handbook on International Banking and Governance, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Carlos Bautista & Philippe Rous & Amine Tarazi, 2008. "The Determinants of Domestic and Cross Border Bank Contagion Risk in Southeast Asia," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 59(6), pages 1215-1242.
    3. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Luduvice, André Victor D. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2011. "Modeling default probabilities: The case of Brazil," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 513-534, October.
    4. Bystrom, Hans & Worasinchai, Lugkana & Chongsithipol, Srisuda, 2005. "Default risk, systematic risk and Thai firms before, during and after the Asian crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 95-110, March.
    5. Fernandez, Ana I. & Gonzalez, Francisco, 2005. "How accounting and auditing systems can counteract risk-shifting of safety-nets in banking: Some international evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 466-500, October.
    6. Kamila Tomczak, 2023. "Transmission of the 2007–2008 financial crisis in advanced countries of the European Union," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 40-64, January.
    7. Hans Degryse & Sanja Jakovljević & Steven Ongena, 2015. "A Review of Empirical Research on the Design and Impact of Regulation in the Banking Sector," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 423-443, December.
    8. Jutasompakorn, Pearpilai & Brooks, Robert & Brown, Christine & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon, 2014. "Banking crises: Identifying dates and determinants," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 150-166.
    9. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Staub, Roberta B., 2007. "Assessing financial instability: The case of Brazil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 188-202, June.
    10. Angkinand, Apanard P., 2009. "Banking regulation and the output cost of banking crises," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 240-257, April.
    11. Sarlin, Peter & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2013. "Mapping the state of financial stability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 46-76.
    12. Pasali, Selahattin Selsah, 2013. "Where is the cheese ? synthesizing a giant literature on causes and consequences of financial sector development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6655, The World Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bonfiglioli, Alessandra, 2008. "Financial integration, productivity and capital accumulation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 337-355, December.
    2. Caprio, Gerard & Honohan, Patrick, 2001. "Finance for Growth: Policy Choices in a Volatile World," MPRA Paper 9929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Alessandra Bonfiglioli & Caterina Mendicino, 2004. "Financial liberalization, bank crises and growth: Assessing the links," Economics Working Papers 946, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    4. Bonfiglioli, Alessandra & Mendicino, Caterina, 2004. "Financial Liberalization, Banking Crises and Growth: Assessing the Links," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 567, Stockholm School of Economics.
    5. Lucía Cuadro Sáez & Sonsoles Gallego Herrero & Alicia García Herrero, 2003. "Why Do Countries Develop More Financially Than Others? The Role Of The Central Bank And Banking Supervision," Finance 0304006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ndikumana, Leonce, 2005. "Financial development, financial structure, and domestic investment: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 651-673, June.
    7. Cull, Robert & Senbet, Lemma W & Sorge, Marco, 2005. "Deposit Insurance and Financial Development," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(1), pages 43-82, February.
    8. Cooray, Arusha, 2011. "The role of the government in financial sector development," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 928-938, May.
    9. Nicola Cetorelli & Michele Gambera, 2001. "Banking Market Structure, Financial Dependence and Growth: International Evidence from Industry Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 617-648, April.
    10. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 2006. "Bank supervision and corruption in lending," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 2131-2163, November.
    11. Mark Flannery, 2001. "The Faces of “Market Discipline”," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 107-119, October.
    12. Fang, Yiwei & Fornaro, James & Li, Lingxiang & Zhu, Yun, 2018. "The impact of accounting laws and standards on bank risks: Evidence from transition countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 103-118.
    13. Beck Thorsten & Büyükkarabacak Berrak & Rioja Felix K. & Valev Neven T., 2012. "Who Gets the Credit? And Does It Matter? Household vs. Firm Lending Across Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-46, March.
    14. Fotios Pasiouras, 2008. "International evidence on the impact of regulations and supervision on banks’ technical efficiency: an application of two-stage data envelopment analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 187-223, February.
    15. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934, Elsevier.
    16. Hoque, Hafiz & Andriosopoulos, Dimitris & Andriosopoulos, Kostas & Douady, Raphael, 2015. "Bank regulation, risk and return: Evidence from the credit and sovereign debt crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 455-474.
    17. Gonzalez, Francisco, 2005. "Bank regulation and risk-taking incentives: An international comparison of bank risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1153-1184, May.
    18. Levine, Ross, 2002. "Bank-Based or Market-Based Financial Systems: Which Is Better?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 398-428, October.
    19. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2011_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Kwan, Simon H., 2003. "Operating performance of banks among Asian economies: An international and time series comparison," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 471-489, March.
    21. Barth, James R. & Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Bank regulation and supervision: what works best?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 205-248, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking sector; bankingcrisis; default probability; market discipline
    (this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)    ;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:14:y:2004:i:5:p:419-438. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.