IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocsan/19-10.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Potential Output in Canada: 2019 Reassessment

Author

Listed:
  • Dany Brouillette
  • Julien Champagne
  • Carol Khoury
  • Natalia Kyui
  • Jeffrey Mollins
  • Youngmin Park

Abstract

Potential output is expected to grow on average at 1.8 per cent over 2019–21 and at 1.9 per cent in 2022. While the contribution of trend labour input to potential output growth is expected to decrease between 2019 and 2022, the contribution of trend labour productivity is projected to increase. Relative to the April 2018 reassessment, the profile for potential output growth rates is similar, albeit revised slightly down in 2020 and 2021. Underlying this new profile are negative revisions to the business investment outlook relative to April 2018 that are mostly offset by stronger projections for population growth. Based on various alternative scenarios, the range for potential output growth estimates widens from 1.5 to 2.1 per cent in 2019 to 1.3 to 2.5 per cent in 2022.

Suggested Citation

  • Dany Brouillette & Julien Champagne & Carol Khoury & Natalia Kyui & Jeffrey Mollins & Youngmin Park, 2019. "Potential Output in Canada: 2019 Reassessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-10, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:19-10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/04/staff-analytical-note-2019-10/
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/san2019-10.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. International Monetary Fund, 2018. "Malta: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report," IMF Staff Country Reports 2018/019, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Audra J. Bowlus & Chris Robinson, 2012. "Human Capital Prices, Productivity, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3483-3515, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & José Dorich, 2019. "The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-11, Bank of Canada.
    2. Fares Bounajm & Jean-Philippe Cayen & Michael Francis & Christopher Hajzler & Kristina Hess & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Peter Selcuk, 2019. "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-13, Bank of Canada.
    3. Dany Brouillette & Julien Champagne & Julien McDonald-Guimond, 2020. "Potential output in Canada: 2020 reassessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2020-25, Bank of Canada.
    4. Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & José Dorich, 2019. "Le taux neutre au Canada : mise à jour de 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-11fr, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kuang, Yunming & Tan, Ruipeng & Zhang, Zihan, 2023. "Saving energy by cleaning the air?: Endogenous energy efficiency and energy conservation potential," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Magnac, Thierry & Roux, Sébastien, 2021. "Heterogeneity and wage inequalities over the life cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Graetz, Georg, 2023. "Imperfect Signals," IZA Discussion Papers 16104, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Thierry Magnac, 2024. "Human Capital and Search Models: A Happy Match," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 75(1), pages 11-29.
    5. Federico Rossi, 2019. "The Relative Efficiency of Skilled Labor across Countries: Measurement and Interpretation," 2019 Meeting Papers 829, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Fotiou, Alexandra & Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2020. "The fiscal state-dependent effects of capital income tax cuts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    7. Carol Corrado & Mary O'Mahony & Lea Samek, 2020. "Measuring education services using lifetime incomes," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-02, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    8. Kong, Y.-C. & Ravikumar, B. & Vandenbroucke, G., 2018. "Explaining cross-cohort differences in life-cycle earnings," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 157-184.
    9. Audra Bowlus & Lance Lochner & Chris Robinson & Eda Suleymanoglu, 2023. "Wages, Skills, and Skill-Biased Technical Change: The Canonical Model Revisited," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(6), pages 1783-1819.
    10. Ian Fillmore & Trevor Gallen, 2019. "Heterogeneity in Talent or in Tastes? Implications for Redistributive Taxation," 2019 Meeting Papers 94, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Vandenbroucke, Guillaume, 2021. "The baby boomers and the productivity slowdown," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    12. Michael J. Kottelenberg & Steven F. Lehrer, 2019. "How Skills and Parental Valuation of Education Influence Human Capital Acquisition and Early Labor Market Return to Human Capital in Canada," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(S2), pages 735-778.
    13. Jin, Gang & Yu, Binbin & Shen, Kunrong, 2021. "Domestic trade and energy productivity in China: An inverted U-shaped relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    14. Audra J. Bowlus & Chris Robinson, 2012. "Human Capital Prices, Productivity, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3483-3515, December.
    15. Comunale, Mariarosaria & Geis, André & Gkrintzalis, Ioannis & Moder, Isabella & Polgár, Éva Katalin & Quaglietti, Lucia & Savelin, Li, 2019. "Financial stability assessment for EU candidate countries and potential candidates," Occasional Paper Series 233, European Central Bank.
    16. Kong, Dongmin & Zhang, Bohui & Zhang, Jian, 2022. "Higher education and corporate innovation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    17. Li, Jianglong & Lin, Boqiang, 2017. "Does energy and CO2 emissions performance of China benefit from regional integration?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 366-378.
    18. Chris Taber & Nicolas Roys, 2017. "Skill Prices, Occupations and Changes in the Wage Structure," 2017 Meeting Papers 208, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Hendricks, Lutz, 2016. "Accounting for changing returns to experience," CFS Working Paper Series 558, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    20. Hendricks, Lutz & Schoellman, Todd, 2014. "Student abilities during the expansion of US education," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 19-36.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour markets; Potential output; Productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:19-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.