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Potential output in Canada: 2020 reassessment

Author

Listed:
  • Dany Brouillette
  • Julien Champagne
  • Julien McDonald-Guimond

Abstract

After COVID-19, we expect potential output growth to stabilize around 1.2 percent. This is lower than the 2010–18 average growth of 1.8 percent. Relative to the April 2019 reassessment, the growth profile is revised down. Given the unknown course of the pandemic, uncertainty around these estimates is higher than in previous years.

Suggested Citation

  • Dany Brouillette & Julien Champagne & Julien McDonald-Guimond, 2020. "Potential output in Canada: 2020 reassessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2020-25, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:20-25
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    2. Dany Brouillette & Julien Champagne & Carol Khoury & Natalia Kyui & Jeffrey Mollins & Youngmin Park, 2019. "Potential Output in Canada: 2019 Reassessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-10, Bank of Canada.
    3. Pedro Brinca & Joao B. Duarte & Miguel Faria-e-Castro, 2020. "Is the COVID-19 Pandemic a Supply or a Demand Shock?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 31, May.
    4. Vighneswara Swamy, 2020. "Debt and growth: Decomposing the cause and effect relationship," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 141-156, April.
    5. Xin Scott Chen & Ali Jaffery & Guillaume Nolin & Karim Salhab & Peter Shannon & Subrata Sarker, 2020. "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: October 2020," Discussion Papers 2020-10, Bank of Canada.
    6. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 233-297.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dmitry Matveev & Julien McDonald-Guimond & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2020. "The neutral rate in Canada: 2020 update," Staff Analytical Notes 2020-24, Bank of Canada.
    2. Dany Brouillette & Guyllaume Faucher & Martin Kuncl & Austin McWhirter & Youngmin Park, 2021. "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-6, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour markets; Potential output; Productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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