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Digitalization and Inflation: A Review of the Literature

Author

Listed:
  • Karyne B. Charbonneau
  • Alexa Evans
  • Subrata Sarker
  • Lena Suchanek

Abstract

In the past few years, many have postulated that the possible disinflationary effects of digitalization could explain the subdued inflation in advanced economies. In this note, we review the evidence found in the literature. We look at three main channels. First, we find that changes in the prices of information and communication technology-related goods and services included in the CPI have had a negligible effect on inflation in Canada. Second, we find that, due to the small share of e-commerce in Canada and the remarkably similar behaviour of online and offline prices, the “Amazon effect” has only had a small disinflationary impact to date. As e-commerce grows, however, downward pressure on inflation may amplify in the future through increased competition, but digitalization may also increase market concentration. Finally, although cost-efficient technologies should lead to increased productivity, which would put downward pressure on inflation, this effect has yet to appear in the statistics. Overall, we find it unlikely that digitalization has so far had a significant effect on inflation in Canada.

Suggested Citation

  • Karyne B. Charbonneau & Alexa Evans & Subrata Sarker & Lena Suchanek, 2017. "Digitalization and Inflation: A Review of the Literature," Staff Analytical Notes 17-20, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:17-20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberto Cavallo, 2017. "Are Online and Offline Prices Similar? Evidence from Large Multi-channel Retailers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 283-303, January.
    2. David Autor & David Dorn & Lawrence F Katz & Christina Patterson & John Van Reenen, 2020. "The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms [“Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 645-709.
    3. Wei Dong & James Fudurich & Lena Suchanek, 2017. "Digital Transformation in the Service Sector: Insights from Consultations with Firms in Wholesale, Retail and Logistics," Staff Analytical Notes 17-19, Bank of Canada.
    4. David M. Byrne & John G. Fernald & Marshall B. Reinsdorf, 2016. "Does the United States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(1 (Spring), pages 109-182.
    5. Nadim Ahmad & Jennifer Ribarsky & Marshall Reinsdorf, 2017. "Can potential mismeasurement of the digital economy explain the post-crisis slowdown in GDP and productivity growth?," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2017/9, OECD Publishing.
    6. Dany Brouillette & Laurence Savoie-Chabot, 2017. "Global Factors and Inflation in Canada," Staff Analytical Notes 17-17, Bank of Canada.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fares Bounajm & Jean-Philippe Cayen & Michael Francis & Christopher Hajzler & Kristina Hess & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Peter Selcuk, 2019. "Évaluation de la croissance de la production potentielle mondiale : avril 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-13fr, Bank of Canada.
    2. Vivian Chu & Tatjana Dahlhaus & Christopher Hajzler, 2023. "Digitalization: Prices of Goods and Services," Discussion Papers 2023-27, Bank of Canada.
    3. Ismail H. Genc & Mohammad Arzaghi, 2024. "Did the COVID-19 pandemic permanently impact e-commerce in the US market?," Modern Finance, Modern Finance Institute, vol. 2(1), pages 18-30.
    4. Robert Laskowski, 2022. "Differences between Online Prices and the Consumer Prices Index During Covid-19 in Germany," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 16(1), pages 76-87.
    5. Fiskara Indawan & Aryo Sasongko & Dian Rahmawati, 2023. "Price Setting Behavior In An Online Market," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 26(2), pages 192-220, May.
    6. Richard Beard & Anne-Katherine Cormier & Michael Francis & Katerina Gribbin & Justin-Damien Guénette & Christopher Hajzler & Kristina Hess & James Ketcheson & Kun Mo & Louis Poirier & Peter Selcuk, 2018. "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-9, Bank of Canada.
    7. Anne-Katherine Cormier & Michael Francis & Kristina Hess & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, 2019. "Drivers of Weak Wage Growth in Advanced Economies," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-3, Bank of Canada.
    8. Eric J. Bartelsman, 2019. "From New Technology to Productivity," European Economy - Discussion Papers 113, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    9. Fares Bounajm & Jean-Philippe Cayen & Michael Francis & Christopher Hajzler & Kristina Hess & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Peter Selcuk, 2019. "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-13, Bank of Canada.
    10. Emilio Ocampo, 2020. "The Global Disinflation Puzzle. A Selective Review of the Theory and Evidence in an Historical Context," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 726, Universidad del CEMA.
    11. Ha,Jongrim & Ivanova,Anna & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Unsal Portillo Ocando,Derya Filiz, 2019. "Inflation : Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8738, The World Bank.
    12. Lei Lv & Zhixin Liu & Yingying Xu, 2019. "Technological progress, globalization and low-inflation: Evidence from the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, April.
    13. Christian Friedrich & Peter Selcuk, 2022. "The Impact of Globalization and Digitalization on the Phillips Curve," Staff Working Papers 22-7, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation and prices; Market structure and pricing; Productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • L81 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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