IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocsan/19-13fr.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Évaluation de la croissance de la production potentielle mondiale : avril 2019

Author

Listed:
  • Fares Bounajm
  • Jean-Philippe Cayen
  • Michael Francis
  • Christopher Hajzler
  • Kristina Hess
  • Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle
  • Peter Selcuk

Abstract

Cette note présente les estimations actualisées de la croissance de la production potentielle pour l’économie mondiale jusqu’en 2021. La production potentielle mondiale devrait croître à un rythme de 3,3 % par année au cours de la période de projection. Deux éléments pèsent sur la croissance de la production potentielle dans l’ensemble des régions : les différends commerciaux, qui entravent la croissance de la productivité totale des facteurs aux États-Unis et en Chine, et le vieillissement démographique, qui influe négativement sur le taux d’activité de la population aux États-Unis, en Chine, dans la zone euro et au Japon. La production potentielle devrait continuer de croître à un rythme assez stable aux États-Unis, mais on observe des dynamiques qui se contrebalancent dans les autres régions. Ainsi, la croissance de la production potentielle devrait se raffermir dans les économies émergentes, notamment grâce à une reprise de l’investissement et à des réformes structurelles contribuant à un accroissement de la productivité totale des facteurs. Au Japon, en Chine et dans la zone euro, en revanche, on s’attend à un ralentissement sous l’effet modérateur croissant du vieillissement de la population et de la diminution du facteur travail au cours des trois prochaines années. Dans le cas de la Chine, une modération du taux de progression des investissements participera aussi au ralentissement de la croissance potentielle.

Suggested Citation

  • Fares Bounajm & Jean-Philippe Cayen & Michael Francis & Christopher Hajzler & Kristina Hess & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Peter Selcuk, 2019. "Évaluation de la croissance de la production potentielle mondiale : avril 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-13fr, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:19-13fr
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.banqueducanada.ca/2019/05/note-analytique-personnel-2019-13/
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.banqueducanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/san2019-13fr.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benjamin F. Jones, 2010. "Age and Great Invention," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 1-14, February.
    2. David Lagakos & Benjamin Moll & Tommaso Porzio & Nancy Qian & Todd Schoellman, 2018. "Life Cycle Wage Growth across Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 797-849.
    3. Dany Brouillette & Julien Champagne & Carol Khoury & Natalia Kyui & Jeffrey Mollins & Youngmin Park, 2019. "Production potentielle au Canada : réévaluation de 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-10fr, Bank of Canada.
    4. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2023. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 306-332, April.
    5. Laibson, David I. & Agarwal, Sumit & Driscoll, John C. & Gabaix, Xavier, 2009. "The Age of Reason: Financial Decisions over the Life-Cycle with Implications for Regulation," Scholarly Articles 4554335, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    6. Sumit Agarwal & John C. Driscoll & Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson, 2009. "The Age of Reason: Financial Decisions over the Life Cycle and Implications for Regulation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 51-117.
    7. Karyne B. Charbonneau & Alexa Evans & Subrata Sarker & Lena Suchanek, 2017. "Digitalization and Inflation: A Review of the Literature," Staff Analytical Notes 17-20, Bank of Canada.
    8. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    9. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2016. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity," NBER Working Papers 22452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fares Bounajm & Jean-Philippe Cayen & Michael Francis & Christopher Hajzler & Kristina Hess & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Peter Selcuk, 2019. "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-13, Bank of Canada.
    2. Kim, Hoolda & Song Lee, Bun, 2023. "Aging workforce, wages, and productivity: Do older workers drag productivity down in Korea?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    3. Tan, Youchao & Liu, Xiumei & Sun, Hanwen & Zeng, Cheng(Colin), 2022. "Population ageing, labour market rigidity and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(2).
    4. Thomas Ziesemer & Anne von Gässler, 2021. "Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(2), pages 129-160, May.
    5. Park, Cyn-Young & Shin, Kwanho & Kikkawa, Aiko, 2022. "Demographic change, technological advance, and growth: A cross-country analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    6. Catarina Peralta & Pedro Mazeda Gil, 2021. "Automation, Education, and Population: Dynamic Effects in an OLG Growth and Fertility Model," CEF.UP Working Papers 2102, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    7. Niklas Engbom, 2018. "Firm and Worker Dynamics in an Aging Labor Market," 2018 Meeting Papers 1009, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Yu Liu & Mingde Jia, 2023. "The Impact of Population Aging on Green Innovation: An Empirical Analysis Based on Inter-Provincial Data in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.
    9. John Y. Campbell, 2016. "Restoring Rational Choice: The Challenge of Consumer Financial Regulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 1-30, May.
    10. Umar, Tarik, 2022. "Complexity aversion when SeekingAlpha," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2).
    11. Guy Lacroix & Pierre-Carl Michaud, 2024. "Tax Incentives and Older Workers: Evidence from Canada," Cahiers de recherche / Working Papers 02, Chaire de recherche Jacques-Parizeau en politiques économiques / Jacques-Parizeau Research Chair in Economic Policy.
    12. Yi-Chun Ko & Shinsuke Uchida & Akira Hibiki, 2024. "Substitution of Human and Physical Capitals in Farm Adaptation to Extreme Temperatures: Evidence from Corn Yields in US," TUPD Discussion Papers 49, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    13. van Dalen, Hendrik Peter & Henkens, Kene, 2018. "Do people really want freedom of choice? : Assessing preferences of pension holders," Other publications TiSEM 448e8a93-9ded-401f-9da0-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Olafsson, Arna & Pagel, Michaela, 2024. "Retirement puzzles: New evidence from personal finances," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    15. Gabriele Galati & Federica Teppa & Rob Alessie, 2013. "Heterogeneity in house price dynamics," DNB Working Papers 371, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    16. Berger, Allen N. & Kick, Thomas & Schaeck, Klaus, 2014. "Executive board composition and bank risk taking," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 48-65.
    17. Peijnenburg, J.M.J. & Nijman, T.E. & Werker, B.J.M., 2010. "Optimal Annuitization with Incomplete Annuity Markets and Background Risk During Retirement," Other publications TiSEM 0b8e2130-a64a-48c1-97d6-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Fanglin LI & Michael APPIAH & Regina Naa Amua DODOO, 2020. "The Effects Of Technology And Labor On Growth In Emerging Countries," Management Research and Practice, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(2), pages 39-47, June.
    19. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Michael Weber, 2022. "Managing Households’ Expectations with Unconventional Policies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(4), pages 1597-1642.
    20. Firth, Chris & Stewart, Neil & Antoniou, Constantinos & Leake, David, 2023. "The effects of personality and IQ on portfolio outcomes," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Production potentielle; Productivité; Questions internationales;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:19-13fr. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.