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The Productivity Slowdown in Canada: An ICT Phenomenon?

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  • Jeffrey Mollins
  • Pierre St-Amant

Abstract

We ask whether a weaker contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT) to productivity growth could account for the productivity slowdown observed in Canada since the early 2000s. To answer this question, we consider several methods capturing channels through which ICT could affect aggregate productivity growth. This includes an approach “à la Cette et al. (2015)” that focuses on the use of ICT capital. We also examine two-sector models including a simple approach with use and production effects, and an approach “à la Oulton (2012)” that highlights the role of relatively weak growth in ICT prices. However, Oulton’s approach is based on strong assumptions about the structure of the economy, some of which are clearly inconsistent with Canadian data. We therefore propose a different model based on assumptions that are less restrictive but that still capture various channels (production, capital deepening, price effects). Our results indicate that ICT continues to contribute to productivity growth, but that this contribution has declined and accounts for part of the productivity slowdown. However, the slowdowns in productivity and in the contribution of ICT do not seem to have the same timing. While productivity slowed in the early 2000s, ICT contribution does not appear to have fallen until around the Great Recession. This prompts the conclusion that while ICT had little to no role in the initial productivity slowdown, it has been a major determinant of the subdued productivity growth since around the recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey Mollins & Pierre St-Amant, 2019. "The Productivity Slowdown in Canada: An ICT Phenomenon?," Staff Working Papers 19-2, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:19-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alejandra Bellatin & Stephanie Houle, 2021. "Overlooking the online world: Does mismeasurement of the digital economy explain the productivity slowdown?," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-10, Bank of Canada.
    2. Farah Omran & Jeremy Kronick, 2019. "Productivity and the Financial Services Sector – How to Achieve New Heights," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 555, October.
    3. Tang, Jianmin & Wang, Weimin, 2020. "Technological frontier, technical efficiency and the post-2000 productivity slowdown in Canada," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 12-25.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Productivity;

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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