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Structural Change and Productivity Growth in Europe - Past, Present and Future

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  • Georg Duernecker
  • Miguel Sanchez-Martinez

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of structural change on the historical path of aggregate labor productivity growth for a large sample of European countries, and it builds a quantitative multi-sector growth model to analyze the potential impact that structural change may have on future productivity growth. We document that the observed reallocation of economic activity since the 1970s towards the service sector has exerted a strongly negative effect on aggregate productivity growth in most European countries. Moreover, we perform a quantitative analysis to show that the expected path of structural change might continue to have a sizable dent on future productivity growth in Europe. By contrast, the impact in the U.S. is expected to rapidly diminish. We show that this differential result can be explained by the large expansion, in Europe, of certain service sub-sectors characterized by stagnant productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Georg Duernecker & Miguel Sanchez-Martinez, 2021. "Structural Change and Productivity Growth in Europe - Past, Present and Future," CESifo Working Paper Series 9323, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9323
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    Cited by:

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    2. Wifo, 2023. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 9/2023," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(9), September.
    3. Bripi, Francesco & Bronzini, Raffaello & Gentili, Elena & Linarello, Andrea & Scarinzi, Elisa, 2024. "Structural change and firm dynamics in Southern Italy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 678-691.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural change; productivity growth; Baumol’s cost disease; service sector; European Union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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