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Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Ernest Liu

    (Princeton)

  • Amir Sufi

    (University of Chicago)

  • Atif Mian

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

How does the production side of the economy respond to a low interest rate environment? This study provides a new theoretical result that low interest rates encourage market concentration by giving industry leaders a strategic advantage over followers, and this effect strengthens as the interest rate approaches zero. The model provides a unified explanation for why the fall in long-term interest rates has been associated with rising market concentration, reduced dynamism, a widening productivity-gap between industry leaders and followers, and slower productivity growth. Support for the model’s key mechanism is established by showing that a decline in the ten year Treasury yield generates positive excess returns for industry leaders, and the magnitude of the excess returns rises as the Treasury yield approaches zero.

Suggested Citation

  • Ernest Liu & Amir Sufi & Atif Mian, 2019. "Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth," 2019 Meeting Papers 83, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed019:83
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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