IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocsan/18-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Beard
  • Anne-Katherine Cormier
  • Michael Francis
  • Katerina Gribbin
  • Justin-Damien Guénette
  • Christopher Hajzler
  • Kristina Hess
  • James Ketcheson
  • Kun Mo
  • Louis Poirier
  • Peter Selcuk

Abstract

This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates. There are offsetting dynamics across regions. Specifically, potential output growth is expected to increase in the United States, reflecting a slight rise in capital deepening. In emerging-market economies, potential growth is also projected to strengthen, mainly due to a recovery of investment as well as structural reforms contributing to total factor productivity growth. Population aging and declining labour inputs slow potential output growth in Japan, China and the euro area. Potential output in China also slows due to moderating investment growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Beard & Anne-Katherine Cormier & Michael Francis & Katerina Gribbin & Justin-Damien Guénette & Christopher Hajzler & Kristina Hess & James Ketcheson & Kun Mo & Louis Poirier & Peter Selcuk, 2018. "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-9, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:18-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/san2018-9.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Agopsowicz & Dany Brouillette & Bassirou Gueye & Julien McDonald-Guimond & Jeffrey Mollins & Youngmin Park, 2018. "Potential Output in Canada: 2018 Reassessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-10, Bank of Canada.
    2. Jeannine Bailliu & Christopher Hajzler, 2016. "Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Emerging-Market Economies," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2016(Autumn), pages 47-60.
    3. Jeannine Bailliu & Mark Kruger & Argyn Toktamyssov & Wheaton Welbourn, 2016. "How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom’s Prospects to 2030," Staff Working Papers 16-15, Bank of Canada.
    4. Karyne B. Charbonneau & Alexa Evans & Subrata Sarker & Lena Suchanek, 2017. "Digitalization and Inflation: A Review of the Literature," Staff Analytical Notes 17-20, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Blagrave & Claudia Godbout & Justin-Damien Guénette & René Lalonde & Nikita Perevalov, 2020. "IMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity," Technical Reports 116, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patrick Alexander & Michael Francis & Christopher Hajzler & Kristina Hess & Patrick Kirby & Louis Poirier & Sri Thanabalasingam, 2017. "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth," Staff Analytical Notes 17-3, Bank of Canada.
    2. Fares Bounajm & Jean-Philippe Cayen & Michael Francis & Christopher Hajzler & Kristina Hess & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Peter Selcuk, 2019. "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-13, Bank of Canada.
    3. Fares Bounajm & Jean-Philippe Cayen & Michael Francis & Christopher Hajzler & Kristina Hess & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Peter Selcuk, 2019. "Évaluation de la croissance de la production potentielle mondiale : avril 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-13fr, Bank of Canada.
    4. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2020. "China in the middle-income trap?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    5. Mingyue Wang & Yu Liu & Yawen Liu & Shunxiang Yang & Lingyu Yang, 2018. "Assessing Multiple Pathways for Achieving China’s National Emissions Reduction Target," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-16, June.
    6. Wagner, Helmut, 2018. "Structural change, rebalancing, and the danger of a middle-income trap in China," BOFIT Policy Briefs 6/2018, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    7. Vivian Chu & Tatjana Dahlhaus & Christopher Hajzler, 2023. "Digitalization: Prices of Goods and Services," Discussion Papers 2023-27, Bank of Canada.
    8. Jeannine Bailliu & Doga Bilgin & Kun Mo & Kurt Niquidet & Benjamin Sawatzky, 2019. "Global Commodity Markets and Rebalancing in China: The Case of Copper," Discussion Papers 2019-3, Bank of Canada.
    9. Emilio Ocampo, 2020. "The Global Disinflation Puzzle. A Selective Review of the Theory and Evidence in an Historical Context," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 726, Universidad del CEMA.
    10. Lise Pichette & Maria Bernier & Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, 2018. "An Alternative Estimate of Canadian Potential Output: The Multivariate State-Space Framework," Discussion Papers 18-14, Bank of Canada.
    11. Christian Friedrich & Peter Selcuk, 2022. "The Impact of Globalization and Digitalization on the Phillips Curve," Staff Working Papers 22-7, Bank of Canada.
    12. Ohnsorge, Franziska & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2020. "Emerging and Developing Economies: Ten Years After the Global Recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 14405, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Wagner, Helmut, 2018. "Structural change, rebalancing, and the danger of a middle-income trap in China," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 13/2018, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS).
    14. Takatoshi Sasaki & Tomoya Sakata & Yui Mukoyama & Koichi Yoshino, 2021. "China's Long-Term Growth Potential: Can Productivity Convergence Be Sustained?," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 21-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    15. Lodge, David & Soudan, Michel, 2019. "Credit, financial conditions and the business cycle in China," Working Paper Series 2244, European Central Bank.
    16. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    17. Xin Scott Chen & José Dorich, 2018. "The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2018 Estimates," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-22, Bank of Canada.
    18. Fiskara Indawan & Aryo Sasongko & Dian Rahmawati, 2023. "Price Setting Behavior In An Online Market," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 26(2), pages 192-220, May.
    19. Eric J. Bartelsman, 2019. "From New Technology to Productivity," European Economy - Discussion Papers 113, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    20. Ismail H. Genc & Mohammad Arzaghi, 2024. "Did the COVID-19 pandemic permanently impact e-commerce in the US market?," Modern Finance, Modern Finance Institute, vol. 2(1), pages 18-30.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International topics; Potential output; Productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:18-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.