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Turn Down the Heat : Confronting the New Climate Normal
[Bajemos la temperatura : cómo hacer frente a la nueva realidad climática (Vol. 4)]

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  • World Bank Group

Abstract

This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and parts of Europe and Central Asia. Building on earlier Turn Down the Heat reports, this new scientific analysis examines the likely impacts of present day (0.8°C), 2°C and 4°C warming above pre-industrial temperatures on agricultural production, water resources, ecosystem services, and coastal vulnerability for affected populations. Data show that dramatic climate changes, heat, and weather extremes are already impacting people, damaging crops and coastlines, and putting food, water, and energy security at risk. Across the three regions studied in this report, record-breaking temperatures are occurring more frequently, rainfall has increased in intensity in some places, while drought-prone regions are getting dryer. The poor and underprivileged, as well as the elderly and children, are found to be hit the hardest. There is growing evidence that even with very ambitious mitigation action, warming close to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by mid-century is already locked into the Earth’s atmospheric system, and climate change impacts such as extreme heat events may now be unavoidable. If the planet continues warming to 4°C, climatic conditions, heat, and other weather extremes considered highly unusual or unprecedented today would become the new climate normal—a world of increased risks and instability. The consequences for development would be severe as crop yields decline, water resources change, diseases move into new ranges, and sea levels rise. The task of promoting human development, ending poverty, increasing global prosperity, and reducing global inequality will be very challenging in a 2°C world, but in a 4°C world there is serious doubt whether this can be achieved at all. Immediate steps are needed to help countries adapt to the climate impacts being felt today and the unavoidable consequences of a rapidly warming world. The benefits of strong, early action on climate change -- action that follows clean, low carbon pathways and avoids locking in unsustainable growth strategies -- far outweigh the costs. Many of the worst projected climate impacts could still be avoided by holding warming to below 2°C. But the time to act is now.

Suggested Citation

  • World Bank Group, 2014. "Turn Down the Heat : Confronting the New Climate Normal [Bajemos la temperatura : cómo hacer frente a la nueva realidad climática (Vol. 4)]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 20595.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:20595
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    File URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/20595/9781464804373.pdf?sequence=3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jurandir Zullo & Hilton Pinto & Eduardo Assad & Ana Ávila, 2011. "Potential for growing Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil in a warmer world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 535-548, December.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. A DuKE of deniosaurs at WUWT say: Bring on the Cretaceous!
      by ? in HotWhopper on 2015-04-15 11:08:00
    2. Screening for climate and disaster risks – an imperative for climate resilient development
      by ? in World Bank Blogs on 2015-05-01 02:45:00
    3. Extreme Weather Will Be ‘New Climate Normal’ Without Immediate Action, Warns World Bank
      by ? in EcoWatch on 2014-11-24 21:37:00
    4. Global Impacts with Irreversible Changes [INFOGRAPHIC]
      by ? in The Energy Collective - The world's best thinkers on energy & climate on 2014-12-10 00:00:00
    5. This Is The Dystopian World We Are Leaving For Today’s Teenagers
      by ? in Think Progress on 2014-11-24 21:33:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Gvozdeva, Margarita (Гвоздева, Маргарита) & Kazakova, Maria V. (Казакова, Мария), 2018. "Diagnostics of Economic Growth in Russia [Диагностика Экономического Роста В России]," Working Papers 031828, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    2. Alvarez, Maximiliano, 2019. "Distributional effects of environmental taxation: An approximation with a meta-regression analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 382-401.
    3. Sarah Hiller & Jobst Heitzig, 2021. "Quantifying Responsibility with Probabilistic Causation -- The Case of Climate Action," Papers 2111.02304, arXiv.org.
    4. Somayeh Meyghani & Mahdi Khodaparast Mashhadi & Narges Salehnia, 2023. "Long-term effects of temperature and precipitation on economic growth of selected MENA region countries," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 7325-7343, July.
    5. María Alejandra Pineda-Escobar & Paola Liliana Falla Villa, 2016. "Turismo termal como opción de turismo de bienestar en Colombia: un estudio exploratorio," Revista Equidad y Desarrollo, Universidad de la Salle, issue 27, pages 105-124, December.
    6. Marie-Noëlle WOILLEZ, 2019. "Revue de littérature sur le changement climatique au Maroc : observations, projections et impacts," Working Paper 7ae2aa2d-befc-471b-94be-9, Agence française de développement.
    7. Stoerk, Thomas & Wagner, Gernot & Ward, Robert E. T., 2018. "Recommendations for improving the treatment of risk and uncertainty in economic estimates of climate impacts in the Sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87957, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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