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Time-Causal VAE: Robust Financial Time Series Generator

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  • Beatrice Acciaio
  • Stephan Eckstein
  • Songyan Hou

Abstract

We build a time-causal variational autoencoder (TC-VAE) for robust generation of financial time series data. Our approach imposes a causality constraint on the encoder and decoder networks, ensuring a causal transport from the real market time series to the fake generated time series. Specifically, we prove that the TC-VAE loss provides an upper bound on the causal Wasserstein distance between market distributions and generated distributions. Consequently, the TC-VAE loss controls the discrepancy between optimal values of various dynamic stochastic optimization problems under real and generated distributions. To further enhance the model's ability to approximate the latent representation of the real market distribution, we integrate a RealNVP prior into the TC-VAE framework. Finally, extensive numerical experiments show that TC-VAE achieves promising results on both synthetic and real market data. This is done by comparing real and generated distributions according to various statistical distances, demonstrating the effectiveness of the generated data for downstream financial optimization tasks, as well as showcasing that the generated data reproduces stylized facts of real financial market data.

Suggested Citation

  • Beatrice Acciaio & Stephan Eckstein & Songyan Hou, 2024. "Time-Causal VAE: Robust Financial Time Series Generator," Papers 2411.02947, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2411.02947
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Julio Backhoff-Veraguas & Daniel Bartl & Mathias Beiglböck & Manu Eder, 2020. "Adapted Wasserstein distances and stability in mathematical finance," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 601-632, July.
    2. Julio Backhoff-Veraguas & Daniel Bartl & Mathias Beiglbock & Manu Eder, 2019. "Adapted Wasserstein Distances and Stability in Mathematical Finance," Papers 1901.07450, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
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