IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2406.04074.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimation of Global Building Stocks by 2070: Unlocking Renovation Potential

Author

Listed:
  • Shufan Zhang
  • Minda Ma
  • Nan Zhou
  • Jinyue Yan
  • Wei Feng
  • Ran Yan
  • Kairui You
  • Jingjing Zhang
  • Jing Ke

Abstract

Buildings produce one-third of carbon emissions globally, however, data absence regarding global floorspace poses challenges in advancing building carbon neutrality. We compile the measured building stocks for 14 major economies and apply our global building stock model, GLOBUS, to evaluate future trends in stock turnover. Based on a scenario not considering renovation, by 2070 the building stock in developed economies will be ~1.4 times that of 2020 (100 billion m2); in developing economies it is expected to be 2.2 times that of 2020 (313 billion m2). Based on a techno-economic potential scenario, however, stocks in developed economies will decline to approximately 0.8 times the 2020 level, while stocks in developing economies will increase to nearly twice the 2020 level due to their fewer buildings currently. Overall, GLOBUS provides a way of calculating the global building stock, helping scientists, engineers, and policymakers conduct a range of investigation across various future scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Shufan Zhang & Minda Ma & Nan Zhou & Jinyue Yan & Wei Feng & Ran Yan & Kairui You & Jingjing Zhang & Jing Ke, 2024. "Estimation of Global Building Stocks by 2070: Unlocking Renovation Potential," Papers 2406.04074, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2406.04074
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2406.04074
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jinyue Yan & Ying Yang & Pietro Elia Campana & Jijiang He, 2019. "City-level analysis of subsidy-free solar photovoltaic electricity price, profits and grid parity in China," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 4(8), pages 709-717, August.
    2. Li, Kai & Ma, Minda & Xiang, Xiwang & Feng, Wei & Ma, Zhili & Cai, Weiguang & Ma, Xin, 2022. "Carbon reduction in commercial building operations: A provincial retrospection in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PB).
    3. Xiang, Xiwang & Ma, Minda & Ma, Xin & Chen, Liming & Cai, Weiguang & Feng, Wei & Ma, Zhili, 2022. "Historical decarbonization of global commercial building operations in the 21st century," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    4. Xiaoyang Zhong & Mingming Hu & Sebastiaan Deetman & Bernhard Steubing & Hai Xiang Lin & Glenn Aguilar Hernandez & Carina Harpprecht & Chunbo Zhang & Arnold Tukker & Paul Behrens, 2021. "Global greenhouse gas emissions from residential and commercial building materials and mitigation strategies to 2060," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Shimoda, Yoshiyuki & Sugiyama, Minami & Nishimoto, Ryuya & Momonoki, Takashi, 2021. "Evaluating decarbonization scenarios and energy management requirement for the residential sector in Japan through bottom-up simulations of energy end-use demand in 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    6. Zhang, Shufan & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & Ma, Minda & Xiang, Xiwang & You, Kairui, 2023. "Pathway for decarbonizing residential building operations in the US and China beyond the mid-century," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    7. Drewniok, Michał P. & Dunant, Cyrille F. & Allwood, Julian M. & Ibell, Tim & Hawkins, Will, 2023. "Modelling the embodied carbon cost of UK domestic building construction: Today to 2050," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    8. Yuan, Hong & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Xie, Hui & Ma, Zhili & Xiang, Xiwang & Ma, Xin, 2024. "Battery electric vehicle charging in China: Energy demand and emissions trends in the 2020s," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    9. Stefan Pauliuk & Niko Heeren & Peter Berrill & Tomer Fishman & Andrea Nistad & Qingshi Tu & Paul Wolfram & Edgar G. Hertwich, 2021. "Global scenarios of resource and emission savings from material efficiency in residential buildings and cars," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Nan Zhou & Nina Khanna & Wei Feng & Jing Ke & Mark Levine, 2018. "Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(11), pages 978-984, November.
    11. Iain Staffell & Stefan Pfenninger & Nathan Johnson, 2023. "A global model of hourly space heating and cooling demand at multiple spatial scales," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 8(12), pages 1328-1344, December.
    12. Ma, Minda & Ma, Xin & Cai, Wei & Cai, Weiguang, 2020. "Low carbon roadmap of residential building sector in China: Historical mitigation and prospective peak," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Shufan & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & Ma, Minda & Xiang, Xiwang & You, Kairui, 2023. "Pathway for decarbonizing residential building operations in the US and China beyond the mid-century," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    2. Zou, Chenchen & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & You, Kairui & Zhang, Shufan, 2023. "Toward carbon free by 2060: A decarbonization roadmap of operational residential buildings in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    3. Yan, Ran & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & Xiang, Xiwang & Mao, Chao, 2023. "Towards COP27: Decarbonization patterns of residential building in China and India," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    4. Yang, Jingjing & Deng, Zhang & Guo, Siyue & Chen, Yixing, 2023. "Development of bottom-up model to estimate dynamic carbon emission for city-scale buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    5. Zhang, Shufan & Ma, Minda & Li, Kai & Ma, Zhili & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang, 2022. "Historical carbon abatement in the commercial building operation: China versus the US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    6. Liu Yang & Bingyang Han & Zhili Ma & Ting Wang & Yingchao Lin, 2022. "Analysis of the Urban Land Use Efficiency in the New-Type Urbanization Process of China’s Yangtze River Economic Belt," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-22, July.
    7. Yuan, Hong & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Xie, Hui & Ma, Zhili & Xiang, Xiwang & Ma, Xin, 2024. "Battery electric vehicle charging in China: Energy demand and emissions trends in the 2020s," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    8. Xu, Gaoyuan & Shi, Jian & Wu, Jiaman & Lu, Chenbei & Wu, Chenye & Wang, Dan & Han, Zhu, 2024. "An optimal solutions-guided deep reinforcement learning approach for online energy storage control," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 361(C).
    9. Yanyan Ke & Lu Zhou & Minglei Zhu & Yan Yang & Rui Fan & Xianrui Ma, 2023. "Scenario Prediction of Carbon Emission Peak of Urban Residential Buildings in China’s Coastal Region: A Case of Fujian Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-17, January.
    10. Pérez-Sánchez, Laura À. & Velasco-Fernández, Raúl & Giampietro, Mario, 2022. "Factors and actions for the sustainability of the residential sector. The nexus of energy, materials, space, and time use," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    11. Liu, Junling & Yin, Mingjian & Xia-Hou, Qinrui & Wang, Ke & Zou, Ji, 2021. "Comparison of sectoral low-carbon transition pathways in China under the nationally determined contribution and 2 °C targets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    12. Li, Kai & Ma, Minda & Xiang, Xiwang & Feng, Wei & Ma, Zhili & Cai, Weiguang & Ma, Xin, 2022. "Carbon reduction in commercial building operations: A provincial retrospection in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PB).
    13. Zhao, Shujie & Song, Qingbin & Zhao, Dongfeng & Wang, Yongqiang, 2023. "Identifying the spatiotemporal carbon footprint of the petroleum refining industry and its mitigation potential in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    14. Qingwei Shi & Hong Ren & Weiguang Cai & Jingxin Gao, 2020. "How to Set the Proper CO 2 Reduction Targets for the Provincial Building Sector of China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-22, December.
    15. Xu, Feng & Li, Xiaodong & Yang, Zhihan & Zhu, Chen, 2024. "Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factor analysis of embodied CO2 emissions in China's building sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    16. Keagan Hudson Rankin & Aldrick Arceo & Kaan Isin & Shoshanna Saxe, 2024. "Embodied GHG of missing middle: Residential building form and strategies for more efficient housing," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 28(3), pages 455-468, June.
    17. Li, Rui & Liu, Qiqi & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Yuan & Yu, Yanhui & Zhang, Yihao, 2023. "Echelon peaking path of China's provincial building carbon emissions: Considering peak and time constraints," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    18. Zhang, Yijie & Ma, Tao & Yang, Hongxing, 2022. "Grid-connected photovoltaic battery systems: A comprehensive review and perspectives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    19. Zhang, Shicong & Wang, Ke & Xu, Wei & Iyer-Raniga, Usha & Athienitis, Andreas & Ge, Hua & Cho, Dong woo & Feng, Wei & Okumiya, Masaya & Yoon, Gyuyoung & Mazria, Edward & Lyu, Yanjie, 2021. "Policy recommendations for the zero energy building promotion towards carbon neutral in Asia-Pacific Region," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    20. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2021. "Dynamic scenario simulations of carbon emission peak in China's city-scale urban residential building sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2406.04074. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.