IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2403.01745.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Uncovering the Sino-US dynamic risk spillovers effects: Evidence from agricultural futures markets

Author

Listed:
  • Han-Yu Zhu
  • Peng-Fei Dai
  • Wei-Xing Zhou

Abstract

Agricultural products play a critical role in human development. With economic globalization and the financialization of agricultural products continuing to advance, the interconnections between different agricultural futures have become closer. We utilize a TVP-VAR-DY model combined with the quantile method to measure the risk spillover between 11 agricultural futures on the futures exchanges of US and China from July 9,2014, to December 31,2022. This study yielded several significant findings. Firstly, CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat were identified as the primary risk transmitters, with DCE corn and soybean as the main risk receivers. Secondly, sudden events or increased economic uncertainty can increase the overall risk spillovers. Thirdly, there is an aggregation of risk spillovers amongst agricultural futures based on the dynamic directional spillover results. Lastly, the central agricultural futures under the conditional mean are CBOT corn and soybean, while CZCE hard wheat and long-grained rice are the two risk spillover centers in extreme cases, as per the results of the spillover network and minimum spanning tree. Based on these results, decision-makers are advised to safeguard against the price risk of agricultural futures under sudden economic events, and investors can utilize the results to construct a superior investment portfolio by taking different agricultural product futures as risk-leading indicators according to various situations.

Suggested Citation

  • Han-Yu Zhu & Peng-Fei Dai & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2024. "Uncovering the Sino-US dynamic risk spillovers effects: Evidence from agricultural futures markets," Papers 2403.01745, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2403.01745
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2403.01745
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul H. Cootner, 1960. "Returns to Speculators: Telser versus Keynes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 396-396.
    2. Cornelis Gardebroek & Manuel A. Hernandez & Miguel Robles, 2016. "Market interdependence and volatility transmission among major crops," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(2), pages 141-155, March.
    3. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    4. Jia, Rui-Lin & Wang, Dong-Hua & Tu, Jing-Qing & Li, Sai-Ping, 2016. "Correlation between agricultural markets in dynamic perspective—Evidence from China and the US futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 464(C), pages 83-92.
    5. Apostolakis, George N. & Floros, Christos & Giannellis, Nikolaos, 2022. "On bank return and volatility spillovers: Identifying transmitters and receivers during crisis periods," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 156-176.
    6. Manuel A. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra & Danilo R. Trupkin, 2014. "How far do shocks move across borders? Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 41(2), pages 301-325.
    7. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers among major energy and cereal commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 225-243.
    8. Andrew McKenzie & Matthew Holt, 2002. "Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1519-1532.
    9. Bouri, Elie & Lucey, Brian & Saeed, Tareq & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Extreme spillovers across Asian-Pacific currencies: A quantile-based analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Janda, Karel & Zilberman, David, 2012. "Correlations between biofuels and related commodities before and during the food crisis: A taxonomy perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1380-1391.
    11. Hung, Ngo Thai, 2021. "Oil prices and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    12. Duan, Xiaoping & Xiao, Ya & Ren, Xiaohang & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Duan, Kun, 2023. "Dynamic spillover between traditional energy markets and emerging green markets: Implications for sustainable development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    13. Huayun Jiang & Jen‐Je Su & Neda Todorova & Eduardo Roca, 2016. "Spillovers and Directional Predictability with a Cross‐Quantilogram Analysis: The Case of U.S. and Chinese Agricultural Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(12), pages 1231-1255, December.
    14. Suleyman Basak & Anna Pavlova, 2016. "A Model of Financialization of Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(4), pages 1511-1556, August.
    15. Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2018. "Risk spillover between energy and agricultural commodity markets: A dependence-switching CoVaR-copula model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 14-27.
    16. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2020. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    17. Steen Koekebakker & Gudbrand Lien, 2004. "Volatility and Price Jumps in Agricultural Futures Prices—Evidence from Wheat Options," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1018-1031.
    18. Kang, Sang Hoon & McIver, Ron & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2017. "Dynamic spillover effects among crude oil, precious metal, and agricultural commodity futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 19-32.
    19. Yangmin Ke & Chongguang Li & Andrew M. McKenzie & Ping Liu, 2019. "Risk Transmission between Chinese and U.S. Agricultural Commodity Futures Markets—A CoVaR Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, January.
    20. Bianchi, Robert J. & Fan, John Hua & Todorova, Neda, 2020. "Financialization and de-financialization of commodity futures: A quantile regression approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    21. Li, Miao & Xiong, Tao, 2021. "Dynamic price discovery in Chinese agricultural futures markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    22. Musefiu Adebowale Adeleke & Olabanji Benjamin Awodumi, 2022. "Modelling time and frequency connectedness among energy, agricultural raw materials and food markets," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 644-662, December.
    23. Luo, Jiawen & Ji, Qiang, 2018. "High-frequency volatility connectedness between the US crude oil market and China's agricultural commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 424-438.
    24. Du, Limin & He, Yanan, 2015. "Extreme risk spillovers between crude oil and stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 455-465.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yan-Hong Yang & Ying-Hui Shao & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2024. "Quantile connectedness across BRICS and international grain futures markets: Insights from the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Papers 2409.19307, arXiv.org.
    2. Ying-Hui Shao & Yan-Hong Yang & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2024. "Risk spillovers between the BRICS and the U.S. staple grain futures markets," Papers 2412.15738, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
    3. Yun-Shi Dai & Peng-Fei Dai & St'ephane Goutte & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2025. "Multiscale risk spillovers and external driving factors: Evidence from the global futures and spot markets of staple foods," Papers 2501.15173, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Higher-order moment risk connectedness and optimal investment strategies between international oil and commodity futures markets: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    2. Zhou, Xiaoran & Enilov, Martin & Parhi, Mamata, 2024. "Does oil spin the commodity wheel? Quantile connectedness with a common factor error structure across energy and agricultural markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    3. Xu Zhang & Xian Yang & Jianping Li & Jun Hao, 2023. "Contemporaneous and noncontemporaneous idiosyncratic risk spillovers in commodity futures markets: A novel network topology approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 705-733, June.
    4. Dai, Yun-Shi & Huynh, Ngoc Quang Anh & Zheng, Qing-Huan & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Correlation structure analysis of the global agricultural futures market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    5. Farid, Saqib & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Nepal, Rabindra, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on the quantile connectedness between energy, metals and agriculture commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    6. Bouri, Elie & Lucey, Brian & Saeed, Tareq & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "The realized volatility of commodity futures: Interconnectedness and determinants#," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 139-151.
    7. Juncal Cunado & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Realized volatility spillovers between energy and metal markets: a time-varying connectedness approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, December.
    8. Caporin, Massimiliano & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Arif, Muhammad & Hasan, Mudassar & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad, 2021. "Asymmetric and time-frequency spillovers among commodities using high-frequency data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    9. Mehmet Balcilar & Ojonugwa Usman & Busra Agan, 2024. "On the connectedness of commodity markets: A critical and selective survey of empirical studies and bibliometric analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 97-136, February.
    10. Cagli, Efe Caglar & Mandaci, Pinar Evrim & Taskin, Dilvin, 2023. "The volatility connectedness between agricultural commodity and agri businesses: Evidence from time-varying extended joint approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    11. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "Quantile risk spillovers between energy and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    12. Akyildirim, Erdinc & Cepni, Oguzhan & Pham, Linh & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2022. "How connected is the agricultural commodity market to the news-based investor sentiment?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    13. Najaf Iqbal & Elie Bouri & Oksana Grebinevych & David Roubaud, 2023. "Modelling extreme risk spillovers in the commodity markets around crisis periods including COVID19," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 330(1), pages 305-334, November.
    14. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    15. Yun-Shi Dai & Peng-Fei Dai & St'ephane Goutte & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2025. "Multiscale risk spillovers and external driving factors: Evidence from the global futures and spot markets of staple foods," Papers 2501.15173, arXiv.org.
    16. Mishra, Aswini Kumar & Arunachalam, Vairam & Olson, Dennis & Patnaik, Debasis, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness in commodity futures markets during Covid-19 in India: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    17. Zhang, Hongwei & Jin, Chen & Bouri, Elie & Gao, Wang & Xu, Yahua, 2023. "Realized higher-order moments spillovers between commodity and stock markets: Evidence from China," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    18. Garcia-Jorcano, Laura & Sanchis-Marco, Lidia, 2022. "Spillover effects between commodity and stock markets: A SDSES approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    19. Makkonen, Adam & Vallström, Daniel & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Rahman, Md Lutfur & Haddad, Michel Ferreira Cardia, 2021. "The effect of temperature anomaly and macroeconomic fundamentals on agricultural commodity futures returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    20. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Gök, Remzi & Gemici, Eray & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2025. "Risk spillovers and diversification benefits between crude oil and agricultural commodity futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2403.01745. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.