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Oil prices and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak

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  • Hung, Ngo Thai

Abstract

This paper represents an analysis of the spillover effects and time-frequency connectedness between crude oil prices and agricultural commodity markets using both the spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and the wavelet coherence model to evaluate whether the time-varying return spillover index exhibited the intensity and direction of transmission during the Covid-19 outbreak. Overall, the current results shed light on that in comparison with the pre-Covid-19 period, and the return spillover is more apparent during the Covid-19 crisis. However, levels of the intensity of this relationship vary through the period of research, with several intervals witnessing both negative and positive interactions. Further, our findings indicate significant heterogeneity among agriculture commodity markets in the degree of spillover to crude oil prices over time, amplifying our understanding of the economic channels through which the agriculture commodity markets are correlated. More importantly, there exist significant dependent patterns about the information spillovers across the crude oil and agriculture commodity markets might provide prominent implications for portfolio managers, investors, and government agencies.

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  • Hung, Ngo Thai, 2021. "Oil prices and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:73:y:2021:i:c:s0301420721002476
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102236
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Agricultural commodity; Crude oil; Wavelet coherence; Spillover index; JEL Clarifications: C11; C52; Q41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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