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Microscopic Traffic Models, Accidents, and Insurance Losses

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  • Sojung Kim
  • Marcel Kleiber
  • Stefan Weber

Abstract

The paper develops a methodology to enable microscopic models of transportation systems to be accessible for a statistical study of traffic accidents. Our approach is intended to permit an understanding not only of historical losses, but also of incidents that may occur in altered, potential future systems. Through such a counterfactual analysis, it is possible, from an insurance, but also from an engineering perspective, to assess the impact of changes in the design of vehicles and transport systems in terms of their impact on road safety and functionality. Structurally, we characterize the total loss distribution approximatively as a mean-variance mixture. This also yields valuation procedures that can be used instead of Monte Carlo simulation. Specifically, we construct an implementation based on the open-source traffic simulator SUMO and illustrate the potential of the approach in counterfactual case studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Sojung Kim & Marcel Kleiber & Stefan Weber, 2022. "Microscopic Traffic Models, Accidents, and Insurance Losses," Papers 2208.12530, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2208.12530
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Carolina Osorio & Michel Bierlaire, 2013. "A Simulation-Based Optimization Framework for Urban Transportation Problems," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(6), pages 1333-1345, December.
    6. Henckaerts, Roel & Antonio, Katrien, 2022. "The added value of dynamically updating motor insurance prices with telematics collected driving behavior data," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 79-95.
    7. Matthew S. Maxwell & Mateo Restrepo & Shane G. Henderson & Huseyin Topaloglu, 2010. "Approximate Dynamic Programming for Ambulance Redeployment," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 22(2), pages 266-281, May.
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