IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ete/kbiper/552745.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Unraveling the predictive power of telematics data in car insurance pricing

Author

Listed:
  • Roel Verbelen
  • Katrien Antonio
  • Gerda Claeskens

Abstract

A data set from a Belgian telematics product aimed at young drivers is used to identify how car insurance premiums can be designed based on the telematics data collected by a black box installed in the vehicle. In traditional pricing models for car insurance, the premium depends on self-reported rating variables (e.g. age, postal code) which capture characteristics of the policy(holder) and the insured vehicle and are often only indirectly related to the accident risk. Using telematics technology enables tailor-made car insurance pricing based on the driving behavior of the policyholder. We develop a statistical modeling approach using generalized additive models and compositional predictors to quantify and interpret the effect of telematics variables on the expected claim frequency. We find that such variables increase the predictive power and render the use of gender as a discriminating rating variable redundant.

Suggested Citation

  • Roel Verbelen & Katrien Antonio & Gerda Claeskens, 2016. "Unraveling the predictive power of telematics data in car insurance pricing," Working Papers of Department of Decision Sciences and Information Management, Leuven 552745, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Decision Sciences and Information Management, Leuven.
    • Handle: RePEc:ete:kbiper:552745
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://lirias.kuleuven.be/retrieve/437062
    File Function: Unraveling the predictive power of telematics data in car insurance pricing
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521785167.
    2. Klein, Nadja & Denuit, Michel & Lang, Stefan & Kneib, Thomas, 2014. "Nonlife ratemaking and risk management with Bayesian generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 225-249.
    3. Ian W. H. Parry, 2005. "Is Pay-as-You-Drive Insurance a Better Way to Reduce Gasoline than Gasoline Taxes?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 288-293, May.
    4. Denuit, Michel & Lang, Stefan, 2004. "Non-life rate-making with Bayesian GAMs," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 627-647, December.
    5. Desyllas, Panos & Sako, Mari, 2013. "Profiting from business model innovation: Evidence from Pay-As-You-Drive auto insurance," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 101-116.
    6. Simon N. Wood, 2011. "Fast stable restricted maximum likelihood and marginal likelihood estimation of semiparametric generalized linear models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 73(1), pages 3-36, January.
    7. Claudia Czado & Tilmann Gneiting & Leonhard Held, 2009. "Predictive Model Assessment for Count Data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 1254-1261, December.
    8. Gneiting, Tilmann & Raftery, Adrian E., 2007. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 359-378, March.
    9. Paefgen, Johannes & Staake, Thorsten & Fleisch, Elgar, 2014. "Multivariate exposure modeling of accident risk: Insights from Pay-as-you-drive insurance data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 27-40.
    10. Simon N. Wood, 2013. "A simple test for random effects in regression models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 100(4), pages 1005-1010.
    11. Lemaire, Jean & Park, Sojung Carol & Wang, Kili C., 2016. "The Use Of Annual Mileage As A Rating Variable," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(1), pages 39-69, January.
    12. de Jong,Piet & Heller,Gillian Z., 2008. "Generalized Linear Models for Insurance Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521879149.
    13. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521780506.
    14. Jean-Philippe Boucher & Michel Denuit & Montserrat Guillén, 2007. "Risk Classification for Claim Counts," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 110-131.
    15. Philip T. Reiss & R. Todd Ogden, 2009. "Smoothing parameter selection for a class of semiparametric linear models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(2), pages 505-523, April.
    16. K. Hron & P. Filzmoser & K. Thompson, 2012. "Linear regression with compositional explanatory variables," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(5), pages 1115-1128, November.
    17. Simon N. Wood & Natalya Pya & Benjamin Säfken, 2016. "Smoothing Parameter and Model Selection for General Smooth Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(516), pages 1548-1563, October.
    18. Giampiero Marra & Simon N. Wood, 2012. "Coverage Properties of Confidence Intervals for Generalized Additive Model Components," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 39(1), pages 53-74, March.
    19. Krivobokova, Tatyana & Kauermann, Goran, 2007. "A Note on Penalized Spline Smoothing With Correlated Errors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 1328-1337, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Øystein Sørensen & Anders M. Fjell & Kristine B. Walhovd, 2023. "Longitudinal Modeling of Age-Dependent Latent Traits with Generalized Additive Latent and Mixed Models," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 88(2), pages 456-486, June.
    2. Frank van Berkum & Katrien Antonio & Michel Vellekoop, 2021. "Quantifying longevity gaps using micro‐level lifetime data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(2), pages 548-570, April.
    3. Marra, Giampiero & Radice, Rosalba, 2017. "Bivariate copula additive models for location, scale and shape," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 99-113.
    4. Andrada Ivanescu & Ana-Maria Staicu & Fabian Scheipl & Sonja Greven, 2015. "Penalized function-on-function regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 539-568, June.
    5. Reiss Philip T. & Huang Lei, 2012. "Smoothness Selection for Penalized Quantile Regression Splines," The International Journal of Biostatistics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, May.
    6. Giampiero Marra & Rosalba Radice & Till Bärnighausen & Simon N. Wood & Mark E. McGovern, 2017. "A Simultaneous Equation Approach to Estimating HIV Prevalence With Nonignorable Missing Responses," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(518), pages 484-496, April.
    7. George Tzougas, 2020. "EM Estimation for the Poisson-Inverse Gamma Regression Model with Varying Dispersion: An Application to Insurance Ratemaking," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-23, September.
    8. Tzougas, George, 2020. "EM estimation for the Poisson-Inverse Gamma regression model with varying dispersion: an application to insurance ratemaking," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106539, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Philip T. Reiss & Lei Huang & Pei‐Shien Wu & Huaihou Chen & Stan Colcombe, 2017. "Pointwise influence matrices for functional‐response regression," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1092-1101, December.
    10. Klein, Nadja & Denuit, Michel & Lang, Stefan & Kneib, Thomas, 2014. "Nonlife ratemaking and risk management with Bayesian generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 225-249.
    11. Klein, Nadja & Denuit, Michel & Lang, Stefan & Kneib, Thomas, 2013. "Nonlife Ratemaking and Risk Management with Bayesian Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2013045, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    12. Nadja Klein & Thomas Kneib & Stefan Lang, 2015. "Bayesian Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape for Zero-Inflated and Overdispersed Count Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(509), pages 405-419, March.
    13. Longhi, Christian & Musolesi, Antonio & Baumont, Catherine, 2014. "Modeling structural change in the European metropolitan areas during the process of economic integration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 395-407.
    14. Simon N. Wood & Natalya Pya & Benjamin Säfken, 2016. "Smoothing Parameter and Model Selection for General Smooth Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(516), pages 1548-1563, October.
    15. Lauren N. Berry & Nathaniel E. Helwig, 2021. "Cross-Validation, Information Theory, or Maximum Likelihood? A Comparison of Tuning Methods for Penalized Splines," Stats, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-24, September.
    16. Christian Schellhase & Göran Kauermann, 2012. "Density estimation and comparison with a penalized mixture approach," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 757-777, December.
    17. Peter Pütz & Thomas Kneib, 2018. "A penalized spline estimator for fixed effects panel data models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 102(2), pages 145-166, April.
    18. Simon N. Wood & Zheyuan Li & Gavin Shaddick & Nicole H. Augustin, 2017. "Generalized Additive Models for Gigadata: Modeling the U.K. Black Smoke Network Daily Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(519), pages 1199-1210, July.
    19. Musolesi Antonio & Mazzanti Massimiliano, 2014. "Nonlinearity, heterogeneity and unobserved effects in the carbon dioxide emissions-economic development relation for advanced countries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(5), pages 521-541, December.
    20. Kruse, René-Marcel & Silbersdorff, Alexander & Säfken, Benjamin, 2022. "Model averaging for linear mixed models via augmented Lagrangian," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ete:kbiper:552745. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: library EBIB (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://feb.kuleuven.be/KBI .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.