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Determining Safe Withdrawal Rates for Post-Retirement via a Ruin-Theory Approach

Author

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  • Diba Daraei

    (Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Western University, London, ON N6A 5B7, Canada)

  • Kristina Sendova

    (Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Western University, London, ON N6A 5B7, Canada)

Abstract

To ensure a comfortable post-retirement life and the ability to cover living expenses, it is of utmost importance for individuals to have a clear understanding of how long their pre-retirement savings will last. In this research, we employ a ruin-theory approach to model the inflows and the outflows of retirees’ portfolios. We track all transactions within the portfolios of retired clients sourced by a registered investment provider to Canada’s Financial Wellness Lab at Western University. By utilizing an advanced ruin model, we calculate the mean and the median time it takes for savings to be exhausted, the probabilities of exhaustion of funds within the retirees’ expected remaining lifetime while accounting for the observed withdrawal rates, and the deficit at ruin if a retiree has used up all of their savings. We also account for gender as well as for the risk tolerance of retired clients using a K-Means clustering algorithm. This allows us to compare the financial outcomes for female and male retirees and to enhance some findings in the literature. In the final phase of our study, we compare the results obtained by our methodology to the 4% rule which is a widely used approach for post-retirement spending. Our results show that most retirees can withdraw safely more than they currently do (around 2.5%). A withdrawal rate of about 4.5% is proved to be safe, but it might not provide sufficient income for most retirees since it yields approximately CAD 20,000 per year for male retirees in the highest risk tolerance group who withdraw about 4.5% annually.

Suggested Citation

  • Diba Daraei & Kristina Sendova, 2024. "Determining Safe Withdrawal Rates for Post-Retirement via a Ruin-Theory Approach," Risks, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-21, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:12:y:2024:i:4:p:70-:d:1378903
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Moshe A. Milevsky & Kristen S. Moore & Virginia R. Young, 2006. "Asset Allocation And Annuity‐Purchase Strategies To Minimize The Probability Of Financial Ruin," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 647-671, October.
    2. Alexander J. McNeil & Rüdiger Frey & Paul Embrechts, 2015. "Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques and Tools Revised edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10496.
    3. Edward Frees & Emiliano Valdez, 1998. "Understanding Relationships Using Copulas," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-25.
    4. Yuliya Bregman & Claudia Klüppelberg, 2005. "Ruin estimation in multivariate models with Clayton dependence structure," Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2005(6), pages 462-480.
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