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On the universality of the volatility formation process: when machine learning and rough volatility agree

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  • Mathieu Rosenbaum
  • Jianfei Zhang

Abstract

We train an LSTM network based on a pooled dataset made of hundreds of liquid stocks aiming to forecast the next daily realized volatility for all stocks. Showing the consistent outperformance of this universal LSTM relative to other asset-specific parametric models, we uncover nonparametric evidences of a universal volatility formation mechanism across assets relating past market realizations, including daily returns and volatilities, to current volatilities. A parsimonious parametric forecasting device combining the rough fractional stochastic volatility and quadratic rough Heston models with fixed parameters results in the same level of performance as the universal LSTM, which confirms the universality of the volatility formation process from a parametric perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathieu Rosenbaum & Jianfei Zhang, 2022. "On the universality of the volatility formation process: when machine learning and rough volatility agree," Papers 2206.14114, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2206.14114
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Damien Challet & Vincent Ragel, 2023. "Recurrent Neural Networks with more flexible memory: better predictions than rough volatility," Working Papers hal-04165354, HAL.
    2. Siu Hin Tang & Mathieu Rosenbaum & Chao Zhou, 2023. "Forecasting Volatility with Machine Learning and Rough Volatility: Example from the Crypto-Winter," Papers 2311.04727, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    3. Damien Challet & Vincent Ragel, 2024. "Multi-Timescale Recurrent Neural Networks Beat Rough Volatility for Intraday Volatility Prediction," Risks, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-10, May.
    4. Mathieu Rosenbaum & Jianfei Zhang, 2022. "Multi-asset market making under the quadratic rough Heston," Papers 2212.10164, arXiv.org.

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