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The Historical Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Global Agricultural Productivity

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  • Ariel Ortiz-Bobea
  • Toby R. Ault
  • Carlos M. Carrillo
  • Robert G. Chambers
  • David B. Lobell

Abstract

Agricultural research has fostered productivity growth, but the historical influence of anthropogenic climate change on that growth has not been quantified. We develop a robust econometric model of weather effects on global agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) and combine this model with counterfactual climate scenarios to evaluate impacts of past climate trends on TFP. Our baseline model indicates that anthropogenic climate change has reduced global agricultural TFP by about 21% since 1961, a slowdown that is equivalent to losing the last 9 years of productivity growth. The effect is substantially more severe (a reduction of ~30-33%) in warmer regions such as Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. We also find that global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to ongoing climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Ariel Ortiz-Bobea & Toby R. Ault & Carlos M. Carrillo & Robert G. Chambers & David B. Lobell, 2020. "The Historical Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Global Agricultural Productivity," Papers 2007.10415, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2007.10415
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fuglie, Keith, 2015. "Accounting for growth in global agriculture," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 4(3), pages 1-34, December.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Andrianarimanana, Mihasina Harinaivo & Yongjian, Pu & Rabezanahary Tanteliniaina, Mirindra Finaritra, 2023. "Assessment of the importance of climate, land, and soil on the global supply for agricultural products and global food security: Evidence from Madagascar," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    3. Khed, Vijayalaxmi D. & Jat, M. L. & Krishna, Vijesh V., 2022. "Incentives for Experimenting with Sustainable Intensification: Can Direct Payments to Farmers Help Diversify the Cropping Systems in South India?," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), September.
    4. Christopher B. Barrett, 2021. "Overcoming Global Food Security Challenges through Science and Solidarity," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(2), pages 422-447, March.
    5. McKetty, Matthew NR & Foltz, Jeremy D., 2024. "Climate and Consumption: Evidence From Mali," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343715, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Calum G. Turvey & Jiajun Du & Yurou He & Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, 2021. "A vulnerability index for priority targeting of agricultural crops under a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-18, June.
    7. Han, Xinxueqi & Hua, En & Engel, Bernie A. & Guan, Jiajie & Yin, Jieling & Wu, Nan & Sun, Shikun & Wang, Yubao, 2022. "Understanding implications of climate change and socio-economic development for the water-energy-food nexus: A meta-regression analysis," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).

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