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A vulnerability index for priority targeting of agricultural crops under a changing climate

Author

Listed:
  • Calum G. Turvey

    (Cornell University)

  • Jiajun Du

    (Cornell University)

  • Yurou He

    (Cornell University)

  • Ariel Ortiz-Bobea

    (Cornell University)

Abstract

In this paper, we evaluate a single-index polymorphic production function that relates agricultural output to temperature and precipitation. The advantage of this new approach to measuring agricultural vulnerability under climatic change is that a single-index measure of vulnerability can capture a range of climate responses including plateau effects. The approach identifies plateau effects in the crop yield-weather relationship and provides overall fits consistent with higher-order polynomial fitting. We apply the technique to corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton at the USA county level. We illustrate its computation and use as a critical policy variable.

Suggested Citation

  • Calum G. Turvey & Jiajun Du & Yurou He & Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, 2021. "A vulnerability index for priority targeting of agricultural crops under a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-18, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:166:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03135-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03135-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marco d’Errico & Donato Romano & Rebecca Pietrelli, 2018. "Household resilience to food insecurity: evidence from Tanzania and Uganda," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(4), pages 1033-1054, August.
    2. Anthony Louis D'Agostino & Wolfram Schlenker, 2016. "Recent weather fluctuations and agricultural yields: implications for climate change," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(S1), pages 159-171, November.
    3. Smith, Lisa C. & Frankenberger, Timothy R., 2018. "Does Resilience Capacity Reduce the Negative Impact of Shocks on Household Food Security? Evidence from the 2014 Floods in Northern Bangladesh," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 358-376.
    4. Ariel Ortiz-Bobea & Toby R. Ault & Carlos M. Carrillo & Robert G. Chambers & David B. Lobell, 2020. "The Historical Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Global Agricultural Productivity," Papers 2007.10415, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vyas, Shalika & Dalhaus, Tobias & Meuwissen, Miranda P.M. & Aggarwal, Pramod & Kropff, Martin & Ramirez-Villegas, Julian, 2022. "Response of climate-smart agriculture to weather shocks," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322327, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Yong Liu & Jorge Ruiz-Menjivar & Junbiao Zhang, 2023. "Do soil nutrient management practices improve climate resilience? Empirical evidence from rice farmers in central China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(9), pages 10029-10054, September.

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