IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2004.11122.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimizing the reliability of a bank with Logistic Regression and Particle Swarm Optimization

Author

Listed:
  • Vadlamani Ravi
  • Vadlamani Madhav

Abstract

It is well-known that disciplines such as mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, civil engineering, aerospace engineering, chemical engineering and software engineering witnessed successful applications of reliability engineering concepts. However, the concept of reliability in its strict sense is missing in financial services. Therefore, in order to fill this gap, in a first-of-its-kind-study, we define the reliability of a bank/firm in terms of the financial ratios connoting the financial health of the bank to withstand the likelihood of insolvency or bankruptcy. For the purpose of estimating the reliability of a bank, we invoke a statistical and machine learning algorithm namely, logistic regression (LR). Once, the parameters are estimated in the 1st stage, we fix them and treat the financial ratios as decision variables. Thus, in the 1st stage, we accomplish the hitherto unknown way of estimating the reliability of a bank. Subsequently, in the 2nd stage, in order to maximize the reliability of the bank, we formulate an unconstrained optimization problem in a single-objective environment and solve it using the well-known particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Thus, in essence, these two stages correspond to predictive and prescriptive analytics respectively. The proposed 2-stage strategy of using them in tandem is beneficial to the decision-makers within a bank who can try to achieve the optimal or near-optimal values of the financial ratios in order to maximize the reliability which is tantamount to safeguarding their bank against solvency or bankruptcy.

Suggested Citation

  • Vadlamani Ravi & Vadlamani Madhav, 2020. "Optimizing the reliability of a bank with Logistic Regression and Particle Swarm Optimization," Papers 2004.11122, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2004.11122
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.11122
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beynon, Malcolm J. & Peel, Michael J., 2001. "Variable precision rough set theory and data discretisation: an application to corporate failure prediction," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 561-576, December.
    2. Ravi Kumar, P. & Ravi, V., 2007. "Bankruptcy prediction in banks and firms via statistical and intelligent techniques - A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 1-28, July.
    3. Mai, Feng & Tian, Shaonan & Lee, Chihoon & Ma, Ling, 2019. "Deep learning models for bankruptcy prediction using textual disclosures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 743-758.
    4. Nyitrai, Tamás & Virág, Miklós, 2019. "The effects of handling outliers on the performance of bankruptcy prediction models," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 34-42.
    5. Zoričák, Martin & Gnip, Peter & Drotár, Peter & Gazda, Vladimír, 2020. "Bankruptcy prediction for small- and medium-sized companies using severely imbalanced datasets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 165-176.
    6. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    7. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    8. E.A. Posnaya & I.G. Vorobyova & S.V. Tarasenko, 2017. "Improving the Bank Reliability Evaluation Framework," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3B), pages 138-147.
    9. Canbas, Serpil & Cabuk, Altan & Kilic, Suleyman Bilgin, 2005. "Prediction of commercial bank failure via multivariate statistical analysis of financial structures: The Turkish case," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 528-546, October.
    10. Liang, Deron & Lu, Chia-Chi & Tsai, Chih-Fong & Shih, Guan-An, 2016. "Financial ratios and corporate governance indicators in bankruptcy prediction: A comprehensive study," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(2), pages 561-572.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elena Gregova & Katarina Valaskova & Peter Adamko & Milos Tumpach & Jaroslav Jaros, 2020. "Predicting Financial Distress of Slovak Enterprises: Comparison of Selected Traditional and Learning Algorithms Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-17, May.
    2. Yu Zhao & Huaming Du & Qing Li & Fuzhen Zhuang & Ji Liu & Gang Kou, 2022. "A Comprehensive Survey on Enterprise Financial Risk Analysis from Big Data Perspective," Papers 2211.14997, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    3. Sami Ben Jabeur & Nicolae Stef & Pedro Carmona, 2023. "Bankruptcy Prediction using the XGBoost Algorithm and Variable Importance Feature Engineering," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 715-741, February.
    4. Ben Jabeur, Sami & Serret, Vanessa, 2023. "Bankruptcy prediction using fuzzy convolutional neural networks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Jabeur, Sami Ben & Gharib, Cheima & Mefteh-Wali, Salma & Arfi, Wissal Ben, 2021. "CatBoost model and artificial intelligence techniques for corporate failure prediction," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    6. Zhou, Fanyin & Fu, Lijun & Li, Zhiyong & Xu, Jiawei, 2022. "The recurrence of financial distress: A survival analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1100-1115.
    7. Le, Hong Hanh & Viviani, Jean-Laurent, 2018. "Predicting bank failure: An improvement by implementing a machine-learning approach to classical financial ratios," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 16-25.
    8. Serrano-Cinca, Carlos & Gutiérrez-Nieto, Begoña & Bernate-Valbuena, Martha, 2019. "The use of accounting anomalies indicators to predict business failure," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 353-375.
    9. Hyunjung Nam & Won Gyun No & Youngsu Lee, 2017. "Are Commercial Financial Databases Reliable? New Evidence from Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-23, August.
    10. David Veganzones, 2022. "Corporate failure prediction using threshold‐based models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 956-979, August.
    11. Rogelio A. Mancisidor & Kjersti Aas, 2022. "Multimodal Generative Models for Bankruptcy Prediction Using Textual Data," Papers 2211.08405, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    12. Sami Ben Jabeur & Rabi Belhaj Hassine & Salma Mefteh‐Wali, 2021. "Firm financial performance during the financial crisis: A French case study," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2800-2812, April.
    13. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2009_035 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Demyanyk, Yuliya & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2009. "Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 35/2009, Bank of Finland.
    15. repec:ctc:sdimse:dime19_03 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Zeineb Affes & Rania Hentati-Kaffel, 2016. "Predicting US banks bankruptcy: logit versus Canonical Discriminant analysis," Post-Print halshs-01281948, HAL.
    17. Lenka Papíková & Mário Papík, 2022. "Effects of classification, feature selection, and resampling methods on bankruptcy prediction of small and medium‐sized enterprises," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 254-281, October.
    18. Zeineb Affes & Rania Hentati-Kaffel, 2016. "Predicting US banks bankruptcy: logit versus Canonical Discriminant analysis," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16016, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    19. Ioannidis, Christos & Pasiouras, Fotios & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2010. "Assessing bank soundness with classification techniques," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 345-357, October.
    20. Yi Cao & Xiaoquan Liu & Jia Zhai & Shan Hua, 2022. "A two‐stage Bayesian network model for corporate bankruptcy prediction," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 455-472, January.
    21. Oliver Lukason & Art Andresson, 2019. "Tax Arrears Versus Financial Ratios in Bankruptcy Prediction," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, December.
    22. Tomasz Korol, 2019. "Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-15, December.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2004.11122. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.