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Random Forest Estimation of the Ordered Choice Model

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  • Michael Lechner
  • Gabriel Okasa

Abstract

In this paper we develop a new machine learning estimator for ordered choice models based on the random forest. The proposed Ordered Forest flexibly estimates the conditional choice probabilities while taking the ordering information explicitly into account. In addition to common machine learning estimators, it enables the estimation of marginal effects as well as conducting inference and thus provides the same output as classical econometric estimators. An extensive simulation study reveals a good predictive performance, particularly in settings with non-linearities and near-multicollinearity. An empirical application contrasts the estimation of marginal effects and their standard errors with an ordered logit model. A software implementation of the Ordered Forest is provided both in R and Python in the package orf available on CRAN and PyPI, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Lechner & Gabriel Okasa, 2019. "Random Forest Estimation of the Ordered Choice Model," Papers 1907.02436, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1907.02436
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    Cited by:

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    4. Wang, Shixuan & Syntetos, Aris A. & Liu, Ying & Di Cairano-Gilfedder, Carla & Naim, Mohamed M., 2023. "Improving automotive garage operations by categorical forecasts using a large number of variables," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(2), pages 893-908.
    5. Riccardo Di Francesco, 2023. "Ordered Correlation Forest," Papers 2309.08755, arXiv.org.
    6. Paul Clarke & Annalivia Polselli, 2023. "Double Machine Learning for Static Panel Models with Fixed Effects," Papers 2312.08174, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.

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    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General

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