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A Contextual Model Of The Secessionist Rebellion in Eastern Ukraine

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  • Olga Nicoara
  • David White

Abstract

This paper explores the possible contextual factors that drove some individuals to lead, and others to join the pro-secessionist rebellion in the 2013-2014 conflict in Eastern Ukraine. We expand on the existing rational choice literature on revolutionary participation and rebellious movements by building a contextual choice model accounting for both cost-benefit and behavioral considerations taken by Pro-Russian militants and rebels in the region of Donbass. Our model generates predictions about the characteristics of the socio-political-cultural context that are most likely to ignite and sustain hierarchical rebel movements similar to those in Ukraine.

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  • Olga Nicoara & David White, 2016. "A Contextual Model Of The Secessionist Rebellion in Eastern Ukraine," Papers 1606.02748, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1606.02748
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark I. Lichbach, 1994. "Rethinking Rationality and Rebellion," Rationality and Society, , vol. 6(1), pages 8-39, January.
    2. Hale, Henry E., 2000. "The Parade of Sovereignties: Testing Theories of Secession in the Soviet Setting," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 31-56, January.
    3. Timur Kuran, 1989. "Sparks and prairie fires: A theory of unanticipated political revolution," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 41-74, April.
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