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Segmentation procedure based on Fisher's exact test and its application to foreign exchange rates

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  • Aki-Hiro Sato
  • Hideki Takayasu

Abstract

This study proposes the segmentation procedure of univariate time series based on Fisher's exact test. We show that an adequate change point can be detected as the minimum value of p-value. It is shown that the proposed procedure can detect change points for an artificial time series. We apply the proposed method to find segments of the foreign exchange rates recursively. It is also applied to randomly shuffled time series. It concludes that the randomly shuffled data can be used as a level to determine the null hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Aki-Hiro Sato & Hideki Takayasu, 2013. "Segmentation procedure based on Fisher's exact test and its application to foreign exchange rates," Papers 1309.0602, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1309.0602
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hernando Ombao & Jonathan Raz & Rainer von Sachs & Wensheng Guo, 2002. "The SLEX Model of a Non-Stationary Random Process," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 54(1), pages 171-200, March.
    2. Ombao, Hernando & von Sachs, Rainer & Guo, Wensheng, 2005. "SLEX Analysis of Multivariate Nonstationary Time Series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 519-531, June.
    3. Hawkins, Douglas M., 2001. "Fitting multiple change-point models to data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 323-341, September.
    4. Ming Yuan & Yi Lin, 2006. "Model selection and estimation in regression with grouped variables," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(1), pages 49-67, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dietmar Janetzko, 2014. "Predictive modeling in turbulent times – What Twitter reveals about the EUR/USD exchange rate," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 69-106, September.
    2. Dietmar Janetzko, 2014. "Using Twitter to Model the EUR/USD Exchange Rate," Papers 1402.1624, arXiv.org.

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