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Optimal stopping under adverse nonlinear expectation and related games

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  • Marcel Nutz
  • Jianfeng Zhang

Abstract

We study the existence of optimal actions in a zero-sum game $\inf_{\tau}\sup_PE^P[X_{\tau}]$ between a stopper and a controller choosing a probability measure. This includes the optimal stopping problem $\inf_{\tau}\mathcal{E}(X_{\tau})$ for a class of sublinear expectations $\mathcal{E}(\cdot)$ such as the $G$-expectation. We show that the game has a value. Moreover, exploiting the theory of sublinear expectations, we define a nonlinear Snell envelope $Y$ and prove that the first hitting time $\inf\{t:Y_t=X_t\}$ is an optimal stopping time. The existence of a saddle point is shown under a compactness condition. Finally, the results are applied to the subhedging of American options under volatility uncertainty.

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  • Marcel Nutz & Jianfeng Zhang, 2012. "Optimal stopping under adverse nonlinear expectation and related games," Papers 1212.2140, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1212.2140
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marcel Nutz, 2011. "A Quasi-Sure Approach to the Control of Non-Markovian Stochastic Differential Equations," Papers 1106.3273, arXiv.org, revised May 2012.
    2. Bayraktar, Erhan & Yao, Song, 2011. "Optimal stopping for non-linear expectations--Part I," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 185-211, February.
    3. Erhan Bayraktar & Ioannis Karatzas & Song Yao, 2009. "Optimal Stopping for Dynamic Convex Risk Measures," Papers 0909.4948, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2009.
    4. Adam Smith, 2002. "American options under uncertain volatility," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 123-141.
    5. Frank Riedel, 2009. "Optimal Stopping With Multiple Priors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 857-908, May.
    6. Marcel Nutz & Ramon van Handel, 2012. "Constructing Sublinear Expectations on Path Space," Papers 1205.2415, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2013.
    7. Peng, Shige, 2008. "Multi-dimensional G-Brownian motion and related stochastic calculus under G-expectation," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 118(12), pages 2223-2253, December.
    8. Erhan Bayraktar & Yu-Jui Huang, 2010. "On the Multi-Dimensional Controller and Stopper Games," Papers 1009.0932, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2013.
    9. M. Avellaneda & A. Levy & A. ParAS, 1995. "Pricing and hedging derivative securities in markets with uncertain volatilities," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 73-88.
    10. Ariel Neufeld & Marcel Nutz, 2012. "Superreplication under Volatility Uncertainty for Measurable Claims," Papers 1208.6486, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2013.
    11. Erhan Bayraktar & Song Yao, 2009. "Optimal Stopping for Non-linear Expectations," Papers 0905.3601, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2011.
    12. T. J. Lyons, 1995. "Uncertain volatility and the risk-free synthesis of derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 117-133.
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