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Comparative Analysis of World Market Projections with Special Regard to Wheat Prices

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  • Heckelei, Thomas
  • Krebs, Elvira
  • Mollmann, Claus
  • von Lampe, Martin

Abstract

This paper presents a short comparative analysis of USDA and FAPRI projections for world wheat market prices until 2005. The relevance of different model assumptions regarding assumed inflation, exchange rates, policy parameters as well as shifts in demand and production development are discussed. A subsequent section focuses on the problem of a "world market price concept" for evaluating the potential of unsubsidized EU cereal exports. The Annex provides more detailed information on model assumptions and a comparison of other projected values, also including agricultural products other than wheat. Dieses Diskussionspapier stellt eine kurze vergleichende Analyse aktueller USDA- und FAPRI- Projektionen von Weltmarktpreisen fur Weizen bis 2005 vor. Die Relevanz verschiedener Modellannahmen hinsichtlich Inflation, Wechselkurs, Politikparameter und Bestimmungsgrossen von Angebot und Nachfrage werden diskutiert. Einige Uberlegungen zur Problematik eines "Weltmarktpreiskonzeptes" bei der Abschatzung des Potentials unsubventionierter EU Getreideexporte schliessen sich an. Der Anhang stellt detailliertere Informationen zu Modellannahmen sowie den Vergleich weiterer projezierter Kennzahlen bereit, die auch andere Agrarprodukte einschliessen.

Suggested Citation

  • Heckelei, Thomas & Krebs, Elvira & Mollmann, Claus & von Lampe, Martin, 1998. "Comparative Analysis of World Market Projections with Special Regard to Wheat Prices," Discussion Papers 18778, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ubfred:18778
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.18778
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pinstrup-Andersen, Per & Pandya-Lorch, Rajul & Rosegrant, Mark W., 1997. "The world food situation," Food policy reports 7, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Babcock, Bruce A. & Beghin, John C. & Mohanty, Samarendu & Fuller, Frank H. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Kaus, Phillip J. & Fang, Cheng & Hart, Chad E. & Kovarik, Karen & Womack, Abner W. & Young, Robert E, 2000. "FAPRI 2000 World Agricultural Outlook," FAPRI Staff Reports 32045, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
    3. Babcock, Bruce A. & Beghin, John C. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & de Cara, Stephane & Elobeid, Amani E. & Fang, Cheng & Fuller, Frank H. & Hart, Chad E. & Isik, Murat & Matthey, Holger & Saak, Alexander E. , 2002. "FAPRI 2002 World Agricultural Outlook," FAPRI Staff Reports 32051, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
    4. Rosegrant, Mark W. & Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C. & Perez, Nicostrato D., 1995. "Global food projections to 2020: implications for investment," 2020 vision discussion papers 5, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    1. Heckelei, T., 1999. "Quantitative Modelle als Grundlage des Politikdialogs," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 35.
    2. von Lampe, Martin, 1998. "The World Agricultural Trade Simulation System WATSIM: An Overview," Discussion Papers 18788, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    3. von Lampe, Martin, 1998. "Veranderung von Einkommenselastizitaten im Verlauf der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung - Problematik und Umsetzung im WATSIM," Discussion Papers 18780, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.

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