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Can the U.S. Ethanol Industry Compete in the Alternative Fuels' Market?

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  • Zhang, Zibin
  • Vedenov, Dmitry V.
  • Wetzstein, Michael E.

Abstract

The U.S. ethanol fuel industry has experienced preferential treatment from federal and state governments ever since the Energy Tax Act of 1978 exempted 10% ethanol/gasoline blend (gasohol) from the federal excise tax. Combined with a 54¢/gal ethanol import tariff, this exemption was designed to provide incentives for the establishment and development of a U.S. ethanol industry. Despite these tax exemptions, until recently, the U.S. ethanol fuel industry was unable to expand from a limited regional market. Ethanol was dominated in the market by MTBE (methyl-tertiary-butyl ether). Only after MTBE was found to contaminate groundwater and consequently banned in many states did the demand for ethanol expand nationally. Limit pricing on the part of MTBE refiners is one hypothesis that may explain this lack of ethanol entry into the fuel-additives market. As a test of this hypothesis, a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model of the ethanol fuel market is developed. The results support the hypothesis of limit-pricing behavior on the part of MTBE refiners, and suggest the U.S. corn-based ethanol industry is vulnerable to limit-price competition, which could recur. The dependence of corn-based ethanol price on supply determinants limits U.S. ethanol refiners' ability to price compete with sugar cane-based ethanol refiners. Without federal support, U.S. ethanol refiners may find it difficult to complete with cheaper sugar cane-refined ethanol, chiefly from Brazil.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Zibin & Vedenov, Dmitry V. & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2007. "Can the U.S. Ethanol Industry Compete in the Alternative Fuels' Market?," 2007 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2007, Mobile, Alabama 34867, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:saeasm:34867
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.34867
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    2. Zuniga Gonzalez, Carlos Alberto, 2012. "Total factor productivity and Bio Economy effects," MPRA Paper 49355, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Nov 2012.
    3. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Dharmaratna, Dinusha, 2013. "Renewable Electricity Generation, CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth: Evidence from Middle-Income Countries in Asia /Generación de electricidad renovable, las emisiones de CO2 y crecimiento económico: ," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 31, pages 217-244, Enero.
    4. Xian, Hui & Colson, Gregory & Karali, Berna & Wetzstein, Michael, 2017. "Do nonrenewable-energy prices affect renewable-energy volatility? The case of wood pellets," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 42-48.
    5. Catherine Hausman & Maximilian Auffhammer & Peter Berck, 2012. "Farm Acreage Shocks and Crop Prices: An SVAR Approach to Understanding the Impacts of Biofuels," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 53(1), pages 117-136, September.
    6. Qiu, Cheng & Colson, Gregory & Escalante, Cesar & Wetzstein, Michael, 2012. "Considering macroeconomic indicators in the food before fuel nexus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2021-2028.
    7. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2014. "Causality and predictability in distribution: The ethanol–food price relation revisited," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 152-160.
    8. Filip, Ondrej & Janda, Karel & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Zilberman, David, 2019. "Food versus fuel: An updated and expanded evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 152-166.
    9. Walter Enders & Matthew T. Holt, 2014. "The Evolving Relationships between Agricultural and Energy Commodity Prices: A Shifting-Mean Vector Autoregressive Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 135-187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Kentaka Aruga & Shunsuke Managi, 2013. "Linkages among the US energy futures markets," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 36(1), pages 13-26.
    11. Cha, Kyung Soo & Bae, Jeong Hwan, 2011. "Dynamic impacts of high oil prices on the bioethanol and feedstock markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 753-760, February.
    12. Sarah A. Low & Andrew M. Isserman, 2009. "Ethanol and the Local Economy," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 23(1), pages 71-88, February.
    13. Mindy L. Mallory & Dermot J. Hayes & Bruce A. Babcock, 2011. "Crop-Based Biofuel Production with Acreage Competition and Uncertainty," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 87(4), pages 610-627.
    14. McPhail, Lihong Lu, 2011. "Assessing the impact of US ethanol on fossil fuel markets: A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1177-1185.

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